Is this luck or what?

Please analyse this hand Hand #815474526 · Replay Poker

I had AT so I raised to 2bet he went all in with 3 -4 offsuit preflop and got lucky , in the same game he won like this 2-3 times. I called his all in as I saw him stealing blinds he goes all in every other hand… As I had a decent hand, I made the call… Did I make a mistake?
And I have been taken out like this many times.

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When it’s your day , it’s your day. We all go thru this … stuff happens…

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It really hurts to loose like this, i have been playing good and making right calls, and then I get taken out by lucky turn or river, same stuff since last 5-6 tournament , however I finished in prize position in almost 8 out of 10 tournament I played.

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I can sympathize with you !

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You also need to look at it in these terms:

He was probably trying to bluff you off your cards - it didn’t work, but he did get lucky - and that happens.

The odds on those two precise hands (pre-flop) have you losing about 35.5 percent of the time.

Not exactly a total shocker to end up on the wrong side of that hand. Still sucks.

As for any analysis - all I can say is I’m not sure I would have put myself all-in preflop holding A10o. Now if I had a substantial stack, and calling his all in wasn’t going to hurt me that bad even if I lost - might (I say “might”) have given it a run.

But for real analysis, I’d wait and see if you get some of the better players to chime in.

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Your min bet from the button was weak, so he rightly thought he had a lot of fold equity with his jam. As dealt, you were something like 63% to his 37%, so not a huge favorite.

You would have been in bad shape against any better ace, and not in great shape against almost any pocket pair.

If he had just 30% fold equity, he wins 30 of every 100 times right there. Of the remaining 70 times, he will win about 26 of them. This means he should win 56 of every 100 times he does that, and he might well get more than 30% folds with his jam.

His play was probably profitable. Should you have called? Well, you can’t just cave to him and give him even more of an incentive to do that, so yeah, probably. 3-2 isn’t a big advantage, but you have to draw the line somewhere and make a stand.

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I looked at the previous 2 hands you guys played and it looked like he is ( what I call ) a Bingo player who got burned in the previous hand. So he was probably on TILT in your hand which was a tough loss for you.

Should you have called??

I’m not sure since he had more chips than you did which meant you were busted if you lost. Also, I usually call a Bingo player only when I have a High pair or better.

Btw, I don’t think I would’ve raised right after his previous loss because I would’ve expected the all-in unless that was what you wanted him to do.

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I like the call if you’ve seen him make this same play several previous times with basically random hands. When you make the call, you’re expecting to have a slightly positive result long term, with a lot of tough breaks like this along the way. That’s all from a cash game perspective, where anything even slightly +EV is the right play. In a tournament, you generally want to steer clear of calls like this if you don’t have your opponent covered, though I think you can still make it if you think your opponent’s range is wide enough.

In general, with ATo, against a 3 bet jam that will put your tournament life on line, assuming a more normal 3 betting range that does not include 43o, this is an auto-fold.

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Thanks for all your inputs, i think there are some factors like chip lead and play style that i didn’t take into consideration , I’ll keep those things in mind that you people have mentioned next time I’m in a tournament, hopefully I won’t suffer the same fate…

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I’ve been recording all my pocket cards for the last few months. I now have a sample of 11,000 hands. I record what happened in every hand - basic details (fold, call, win, what kind of win, bad beat, etc.). If I fold a “trash” hand, but go on to hit something, I record that too.

Here’s what’s happened with off-suit ace/ten and off-suit three/four in my sample so far:

Off-suit three/four received 102 times. All folded unless I was the BB and no-one raised. In those 102 games, offsuit three/four ONCE hit a two-pair and would have won the pot had I stayed in. In 101 games out of 102 where off-suit three/four was received, the hand didn’t hit anything better than a pair and almost all the time went nowhere. In other words, off-suit three/four’s performance can be compared to off-suit seven/two.

Off-suit ace/ten (somewhat coincidentally) also received 102 times. Broadway straights: 2. Trips (tens): 3. Top two-pair: 2. Full house: 2 (one flopped).

Off-suit ace/ten isn’t a hand I’d be super-excited about, but I might call a 5xbb raise or something like that. Definitely not all in. But losing to off-suit three/four would seem to be rather unlucky.

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I took into consideration what everyone mentioned and I’m glad it helped my game… won the MTT, thanks to everyone who gave their feedback… Really appreciate your efforts and inputs

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This was funny :rofl: - how lucky do you have to be to pull this off twice against queens then against AQ

Then he finally went bust on this hand:

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I dont think you did anything wrong in the hand assuming he is an all in maniac. Keep playing and never give up!

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I came across a similar situation recently. the player a couple of chairs to my left had accumulated a large stack by pushing frequently, late enough in the tourney so that people were playing a bit more cautious to protect the time they had invested. Then I noticed he was folding when I raised, and pushed when I didn’t. Not unusual, when playing tight. Now I had something I could exploit. After I doubled up a couple of times, and he rejoined the pack in chip count, he gave it up.

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@DR-WOLF You witnessed this :rofl: - they don’t have a fold button

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Play him often enough and you’ll beat him.

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lol