Useful probabilities/odds when holding a pocket pair…
Flopping a set…11.8% (7.5-1)
Flopping a full house…0.73% (136-1)
Flopping quads…0.25% (407-1)
Making a set or better by the river…19.2% (4.2-1)
Source: suntzupoker.com
sounds good but there are more full houses, straights and flushes on replay than in any real game. However, putting that all aside - happy new year
it’s replay and can’t depend upon the normal set of percentages. Play with your gut - you are more than likely to win more than you think. With that said, how many hands have we lost after being dealt pockets aces or kings. Happy 2017
happy chinese new year everyone - Put off firecrackers for me - this is time of the year that they say “happy new year” so enjoy it
A couple week old thread. But that question, at least for me, isn’t quite a simple answer. Every table has different players. If the table is very passive I will raise reasonably often (3X) from under the gun especially with many callers and very rare three bets. I do this to beef up pot because once you flop a set its fairly easy to play really and I want to increase chances of getting it all in by river if I hit. Now in an aggressive table with a lot of three bets I will generally fold these from early position but will raise 3X from button, small blind or big blind. Small pairs are pretty easy to play either you hit or you don’t but don’t flat large portions of your stack hoping to hit especially when often times you are behind and even if you do hit can’t get enough value out of the hand to make up for all the times you miss.
The worst mistake made by most holdem players is to over value pocket pairs…remember that making a set comes only 2 of 15 times…Pocket pairs like Aces and best kept well hidden as you play the hand…I think you will find that some of your largest scores will come when you have “slow played a set”…lol
an out is a card that will help you.
eg you have pocket 2club 2spade pre flop.
there are two outs, 2heart 2 diamond. that will help you
you have the chance to get one of these two cards on the flop.
the odds of getting a specific card is ~2percent.
so for the first card of the flop you have 2 percent chance of getting the 2heart and another 2 percent chance of getting the 2 diamond. or 4% total of making your set one the first card of the flop.
same with the second card and same with the 3rd for a total of 12% chance of getting a set on the flop , 4more % for the turn and 4 more percent at the river, so you have a total of 20% chance of making a set by the river.
not 50% not even close to 50%.
play with this odds calculator
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem
Probability of improving on the flop
Once you’ve picked up a promising starting hand, this chart will come in handy. You can see how likely you are to improve on the flop with a given starting hand.
Starting hand
https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/various-poker/texas-holdem-probabilities/1/