How to not get triggered by this

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/244051907
First hand of the tournament 5k buy in. I get 4-2 off suit with big blind. 7 3 A comes on the flop. After that i get straight when 5 comes out. Chip leader raises to 3k with three sevens. Other guy calls with pair of aces i call with straight and baam three hits the board and this chip leader guy gets his full house… First hand i played in this tournament and last.

The turn brought a 5, which gave you the straight. At the turn, you had to dodge 1 x7, 3 x3s, 2 x As, and 3 x 5s, for a total of 9 cards, So of the 46 cards that were unaccounted for, 9 would make you lose. 9 in 46 is about 20%, so you should expect to lose there 1 time in 5.

You got in good and got unlucky. It happens. In this case, it should happen 20% of the time. You need to understand that it will happen 20% of the time and not worry about it.

Basically, you were risking $3,000 to win $6,000. For every 5 times the situation comes up, you will win $6,000 4 times for a total of $24,000, and lose $3,000 once. If you subtract the 3k from the 24k, you net $21,000, which is an average of $4,200 for each of the 5 times you play that situation.

SO, to answer your question… look at it from the perspective of average profit. You made, on average, $4,200 there, you didn’t lose at all. Winning $4,200 is no reason to tilt. :slight_smile:

Oh, and by the way, you should have folded on the flop anyway rather than chase a gutshot draw with a bet and raise and a possible flush draw out there.

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This is an interesting hand because it’s an example of David Sklanski’s “Fundamental Theorem of Poker” in action. For those unfamiliar with this theorem, I’ll quote it directly from his book, “The Theory of Poker.”

“Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents’ cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose.

Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.”

It was correct to get your chips in the middle at the turn there, and you would have (and should have) made that call if you could see your opponents hands.

Nice replys interesting to read about all percentages. Im not the best poker player i just play for fun.
I saw this and its pretty much the same hand :smiley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7ZiHfTH5d4

First, can we assume the pocket Aces (or even the pocket 7’s raised before the flop? If so, you should have been long gone! But, even so, you still had only a one-ended straight draw. How did you call the flop bet? Then, when you hit gold on the turn by making the straight, you should have raised. The set of 7’s might have re-raised, of course, and the pocket Aces would have had a tough call. You still would have lost to the 7’s full, but stuff happens, especially in a “fun money” tournament. Cheers!

I would never call from the small blind with 42 offsuit, but since the blinds were so small and it was a multi-way pot, that is ok. Then on the flop you hit a gutshot, and the betting was absolutely pathetic (the guy with a set of 7s should be betting a lot more), so it was fine to call with your gutshot because there are some implied odds. Then you hit the straight and you face a pot sized bet. I am fine with just calling because Ax hands might fold to a shove (even though they probably won’t, as in this case, unless the player is good).

Then when the 7s shove, you have to call, but in the end you are only 77% against 23% against him. That means that 1 out of every 4 times you will lose. That is still a fairly high number, and a perfect illustration of why you should never play 42 offsuit. Even though you made basically the best possible hand you could make, you would still have the lowest possible straight, the lowest possible flush, and the lowest possible full house on any given board, so even in the best case scenario you are unlikely to have the stone cold nuts.

Me, I would have folded the hand and never seen the flop. But you, however, played it exactly how most play the hand when playing free chip poker. I just cannot get out of the habit of folding.

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The more you play the more your mindset will change. I play a lot of cash game poker and have seen a lot crazier stuff than that as most answering have as well with no doubt. As long as I get in good and the odds are on my side I take it as a victory as it statistically was the right move to make.

But getting picky about the hand it is a pretty tough one to play postflop on this board, because as mentioned earlier there already is a flush draw out there reducing your effective outs to 3. This means you have approximately a %12 chance to hit your draw by either turn or river card. Which means if you do hit its only positive EV if you can get “approximately” 10 times what you called for over turn or river. So even the small bet of 60 which wasn’t really a good call because you still had one player to act yet on the 6% chance the next card would be a 5 that didn’t put the flush out there. So now you ended up paying 120 (which was a very weak raise luckily by the player yet to act) for the next card. This means you need to get approximately 1400 chips back in order for this call to be +EV (to account for the chances you miss the draw or hit gutshot but hit the flush draw for example). This makes the play a pretty high risk play and hard to turn into a positive EV call. Now we can turn around and say a very similiar thing about the set turning into a full house or four of a kind by river as well as they are both really close in statistical likelihood to happening.

what joke no rules just right dont kid us

He was BB in a limped pot. He didn’t call anything preflop. I’m pretty sure you would have seen the flop.

I would have folded on the flop, but as Joe pointed out, he did have implied odds, especially considering the size of the bet and min reraise, which didn’t really change anything.

The way this hand played, I would have gone broke too, assuming I somehow called the flop bet-raise. He got in a 4-1 fave and got stung… it happens.

No idea where Joe got his 23%. He had to fade 9 cards from the turn, and 9 in 46 is 19.56%. No matter though, the rest of what he said was spot on.

Just a different perspective on the hand. There is no right way to play the hand. But just giving an example of how many chips approximately you would have to win for the “flop call” to be a +EV call. After the call is made however there is no other way to play it you basically have to call as you said. But we could argue the hand should have been folded on the flop as its hard to turn into a +EV call especially when we don’t actually know what the player left to act is going to do.

Right. Once you do call the flop and make your hand, there’s no getting away from it. It was 100% correct to get it in on the turn.

Normally, you would know the location of 6 cards at the turn: your 2 hole cards plus the 4 on the board, making the chances of the board pairing 9 in 46.

From the perspective of this “after the fact” look, however, we know the location of 4 additional; cards… the hole cards of his 2 opponents. So there were 10 cards known and 42 unknown. Of these, 9 would kill us, making it 9 in 42 or 21.4% that we would lose there.

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I fold poor hands only to have the flop give me 2 pair or trips or a straight But or even a full house. But i do not play 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 etc 27 38 49 5 10 2 j etc. Unsuited. Most times I would just be throwing away chips.

Blah, blah, blah. This site is just like any other computer driven online money hungry site. It rewards the donk and/or losing hand at least 75% of the time. It will drain your chips if you do not spend any money. It will reward the people that play all the time and do spend money. It is more than likely the same program that all the original scam sites used to rip people off for a lot of money only on a smaller scale. Put it this way, if you are on an internet site run by a computer program you can bet your ASS someone has their finger in the pie. It’s not real poker, folks. Enjoy the amusement. Bet I lose all my chips now, lol!

I’ll bet you were losing chips before this post.

Let’s check that, shall we?

You’ve been here 15 months, which is roughly 450 days.
The daily bonus is 2500.
450 * 2500 is 1,125,000.
You have 780k.

No doubt about it, the site is rigged to make you lose. That’s the only possible explanation, right?

Something must be done about this outrage!

I pretty much agree with you (SunPowerGuru) in this thread (though I haven’t read it all that carefully), but not all players log in every day, so it isn’t necessarily accurate to count what their bankroll would be. I logged in almost every day for most of my first year on the site for the bonus, but then I didn’t have as much time or care as much, so I stopped.

As you rightly point out, for anybody who wants to accumulate chips, logging in really adds up (why would the site be rigged when it’s so easy to get chips from the bonus?), but it is possible that many players do not take advantage of the daily chip bonus. Getting to 780k puts him ~6,000 on the site, but as we all know, there is a lot of variance in skill level on this site, so it’s hard to say what that really means.

Yeah, understood, and I do agree. I just get sick of the constant “the site is rigged” BS over and over and over, especially when it’s off topic.

Anyway, I was just making a point. :slight_smile:

The point being… it’s only those players who don’t take the time to learn the game that think the site is rigged. I have never seen a good player make claims such as that.

I thought everyone just wrote a little script or set up a cron job that auto logs them every day? (cough)

(That last bit was said in jest. I would never admit to doing anything that’s against the site’s TOU)

I watched this hand 3-4 times…
Sure, early on… you can afford to play crap. Addmittedly the dude with 77 played possum on the flop… ( bad 4 you ), next when the turn hit you, there were 2 flush draws on the board… neither of which you can win (realistically) … Lets also look @ chip stacks, 1 person had less than you did and the other was the table chip-leader with 3x++ the chips of the 2 remaining players ( and he had trips on the flop )… You acting 2nd, just called the bet of 630… you didn’t raise with a straight, you now were playing possum… behind you , the chip-leader , made the right bet — a raise

I , just like SunPowerGuru, had I stuck around to see the turn, prolly wouldda lost, but I wouldda shoved on the turn and not just called. The red flags on this hand must be…
1: table chip leader is raising early, he must have something ( usually )
2: not one but 2 flush draws show up with 1 card to go. ( flush beats your straight )
3: 1st posistion is also betting out, he has something too…
4: table chip-leader is still in the hand, his stack dwarfs mine, he could dump me.
5: if you don’t have the nuts, and someone has more chips, you can get bounced. (be carefull)

This hand illustrates many of the potential landmines we all face… especially “Do I try to make more $$$ with my good hand, or do I blast them off and take a smaller profit”. I also think that there are more than 9 cards you need’d to dodge… any 7, any pairing of the board, any heart, or any spade.

Bottom line here, I think ( opinion ) you misplayed the hand… but even if I agree you didn’t, then sometimes you just have to understand that “bad beats” happen… online & live …