# How do you explain this?

Fair has nothing to do with poker…

4.5% of boards will have 4 cards of the same suit, and 37% of boards will have 3 of the same suit, so flushes happen a lot.

It’s actually not wrong. If an event occurs 9 times out of 90,000 and then 0 out of the next 90,000, there is statistically about a 0% chance that those occurrences are drawn from the same overall distribution of occurrences. Something has changed. In this case, I am not saying I know what has changed. That is what I am trying to figure out. But, I have a graduate degree in statistics, and I can say with over 99% confidence that the difference in the number of straight flushes is not a result of pure chance. My best conclusion at this point is that the difference is how I am playing, how my opponents are playing (at higher stakes), and the game types I am playing, but it is not chance. That is all my original “0%” statement was saying.

Here’s a simple calculator. Type 9 in the 1st box, 90000 in the 2nd, 1 in the 3rd, 90000 in the 4th, click the first level of the last two questions and hit calculate. The probability that these results are from the same distribution is 0.57% (p = 0.0057). So, technically, I was wrong, it is not quite 0%, but it is pretty close.

Replay controls the cards. They are not dealing random cards. They know what you are going to be dealt every hand. They control the winners and the losers. When you fold 2 junk cards that you know you shouldn’t play they would have been the winning hand time after time. that’s not by chance, that’s Replay messing with your head.

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x

ROTTWEILER4h
Replay controls the cards. They are not dealing random cards. They know what you are going to be dealt every hand. They control the winners and the losers. When you fold 2 junk cards that you know you shouldn’t play they would have been the winning hand time after time. that’s not by chance, that’s Replay messing with your head.

i agree …im glad someone else has noticed.

when i take time away from replay and come back … i cant lose … after playing for a month
i cant win. so … i take brakes whenever the cards run bad for more than 2 days.

keep in mind this is a business … they are here to make money. they do that by selling
chips. you wont buy chips if you keep winning them.

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I have never bought chips, but I consistently win on replay. Poker is a game of swings, which is why good bankroll management includes having at least 20 buy-ins to account for variance. Maybe replay does want you to buy chips but I would advise against it because it is just so easy to win here.

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joe dirk

i have never bought chips either …but i dont think we are the majority.
How do you think this site makes money ?
do you think they do it by giving away chips ? they have a fairly large staff to
financially support.
Was this their business pitch " i have an idea for a poker site. I want to give
away chips so players have a legit place to play. I will donate all my time
and money keeping the site running"

time and time again the poker business has proven to be shady and yet
fools like us keep thinking they are there to help us.

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I’m under no illusions about anybody being altruistic, especially on the Internet, most sites are looking to collect data and subscriptions and to sell ads. But at the same time, I’m also used to looking for free content. I don’t pay for youtube or to read the news. Most web content can be obtained for free. People can buy chips on replay to enhance their experience by moving up the stakes or as a donation for the entertainment the site provides, but the site doesn’t force players to buy chips because they give away enough to get started and it’s easy to win from there. Even if I were a bingo player I wouldn’t buy chips because they give you 500 when you run out.

all of which have advertising.
If i were running an ad free poker site i would rig the games so you were psychologically encouraged to
buy chips. I would not be hoping that enough people would buy chips on a whim so i could
make payroll. there has to be a formula for business to work… if there isn’t … they fail.
if i were collecting information about players (e.g. how they play after beats or losing chips) i would
rig the site so beats happened more often.

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“I have been playing on the site for 2.5 years, and almost all of my best hands occurred over 2 years ago. Statistically speaking that makes no sense.”

Oh yes it does! … LOL… I ‘minored’ in “Stat”, and one of the lessons learned early has to do with the “Time Period” one uses to conduct their ‘study’… Everyone ‘gets’ the idea that in the short-term odd things can happen, but in the long-run everything evens out, and sooner or later your results Will fall within one Standard Deviation from the Mean… Bottom line? You just need more time…

.

Bless…

“How do you think this site makes money?” …

They make money through advertising, same way most everyone else does it…

.

Advertising is an expense mate …

The odds of getting a royal flush varies depending on the number of players and whether or not any of them fold before the river. This doesn’t take into account the starting stacks, the value of the bets vs. the blinds, or whether or not it’s worth calling a large bet to chase a gut-shot straight flush. It is not possible to calculate accurate odds when you consider all the factors, but if your just taking into account the total number of players, the odds of a player getting a royal flush range from 1 in 323,624 if there are 10 players and 1 in 1,587,302 if there are only 2 players. This is assuming that the cards are randomly shuffled and none of the players fold before the river. The fact that you got 2 royal flushes out of 177,000 hands is quite impressive. The fact that they happened close together is also quite impressive. Just know that there is no such thing as true random, all RNG’s operate off of some sort of algorithm, so any hand you do get is essentially predetermined by an algorithm. So in reality, you can chalk it up to luck - some good and some bad. If you would like to review the odds there is a comprehensive table on Poker Probabilities - Wizard of Odds.

Forgot to mention, I looked it up… The odds against getting a Royal Flush are 650,000 to 1… And, I actually have one - here, of course, not in ‘real life’… :>))

Total hands played = 89,247. These 3 hands were within about 2 weeks of each other…

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/245671421

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/241506276

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/243999564

exactly !!

totally agree

agree