I am a stats person, not a conspiracy theorist (and I have defended this site on this forum many times).I recently looked at my “Best Hands” in the “Hands” section of the site and noticed something weird. I have been playing on the site for 2.5 years, and almost all of my best hands occurred over 2 years ago. Statistically speaking that makes no sense. I have played over 177,000 hands on Replay, and 9 of my 10 best hands occurred over 100,000 hands ago. There is basically a 0% chance that this occurred by chance. My top 10 hands were:
2 royal flushes (most recent in January, 2015, 2 months after I joined the site)
7 straight flushes (most recent December, 2015, 13 months after I joined the site and 17 months ago; 2nd most recent was May 2015, almost 2 years ago)
And number 10 is quad aces from July 2015
I have considered a bunch of possible explanations:
My playing style has changed since then, which makes it less likely that I would end up with a straight flush. This explanation is unlikely because I know how much equity a combo straight/flush draw has.
These mostly occurred at lower stakes, so the playing style of the other players made it more likely. This explanation is valid, but doesn’t seem like it would go far enough to explain the difference.
The “Best Hands” only include hands that go to showdown, so my opponents are not calling my bets when I have a straight flush. This explanation also has some merit, but I have gotten better at bet-sizing over time, so I would expect to get called at least 1 out of 3 times I have a straight flush.
Can anybody come up with a better explanation? I pointed this phenomenon out on this forum last year sometime, and while I don’t play quite as much as I did back then, it seems even stranger after playing another 40,000 hands.