As usual, i’m not so interested in the result of the hand, as i am in developing shortcuts, habits, and the ability to approach hands with a sense of direction that takes over when i don’t have time to do the calculations. i welcome all comments that point out incorrect, or incomplete thinking on my part. Don’t forget that i’m a rookie, and not very good yet.
villain (Button) 9h 7h limps (44.97%) hero (BB) Kh 8c checks (54.33%)
in game: Am i ever gonna get a hand? check/fold? naw, check, then decide
in retrospect: Not sure i’d come in, UTG, but on a 6 seat table with only 2 limping to the BB? Doesn’t matter since checking the BB is pretty much an xx range, for me.
flop Kd 7h 4h
hero bets 3xBB villain raises to 12xBB (32.63%) hero calls (67.37%)
ig: he’s on a flush draw, he’s on a flush draw, he’s on a flush draw, …
ir: hands that beat top pair…flush 8 outs, stronger top pair, but he’s raising KJ, KQ, KK, KA, preflop, so KT, K9. two pair, K7, K4, 74, but none of those support the flush draw. i have Kh. does Qh Jh make sense? that puts him on a OESD. was i wrong in calling to that many outs? Should i put my tourney life of the line, and fire?
turn Kd 7h 4h Ts
hero bets pot (1080) (70.45%) villain calls (29.55%)
ig: He missed. now his equality’s cut in half. lets see how he responds to me building the pot, with a 25% chance of hitting.
ir: he actually picked up 4 more outs with the gutshot. he didn’t reraise, which was strange. i’m thinking he has me on top pair, so that eliminates KT (he raises) K9 (folds), 77, 44, TT, slow playing KK (not sure why, but just doesn’t feel right. he raises, right?) Qh 9h, Jh 9h, (gutshot), everything else is the flush draw
river Kd 7h 4h Ts As
hero checks villain raises 887 hero shoves 1070 (100%) villain calls (0%)
ig. he misses, but what’s up with that raise? why lea ve me chips? bluff bluff bluff bluff… Oh no, he calls. holy shimolely. wait. what?
ir: why wouldn’t i be thinking he was holding Ah for the flush nut? he’s probablly preflop raising Ah Qh, and Ah Th, but Ah 8h, or Ah trash h would fit his betting pattern leading up to the flop. But that raise? why didn’t he shove? we need not discuss calling with J high, when all my chips are already in the pot. (i know, A high)
during the hand, i remember feeling confident that i was seeing the hand correctly, and was shoving for the win. then, when watching the hand a few times, i felt i was behind, for most of the hand. felt that way playing it, too.
After the flop, the outs he had to beat top pair were a lot more than my outs to beat a flush. should i be looking at things like that, or put it all on the odds he won’t hit?
Curious, i ran the hand through an odds calculator, and was surprised to see i was ahead, the entire hand. The flop had me dominating. i guess my confusion lies in the difference in winning odds and hand equality (which, as i understand it, i was way behind).
On a side note, as i was waiting for the tourney to start, i was reading a post about flush draws vs top pair, and how it is viewed much differently now than it was in the pre math days of holdem. Probably didn’t sway my thinking, but the hand may be an example of what the post was referring to.
here’s the hand: