Guiding Principles

I don’t think anybody knows how to play multi-way pots with a wet board, there are just too many variables. As I understand (or misunderstand) it, the solvers can’t even cope with that situation.

You were looking for a life-jacket, and all I can throw you is a champagne cork and a small rubber duck, but other than “bluff more,” I dunno what to say.

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I just realized I’d never responded to this one.

It’s only middle strength hands that are unhappy to make big bets in most situations (and yes, there are exceptions with this, but it generally involves situations where what had been a middle strength hand has now moved down to the bottom of your remaining range and has lost all or most of its showdown value).

  • The nuts is always happy to put all of the chips in the middle, especially when the opponent has shown strength. It’s really just multiplying your odds of getting called by the size of your bet. Some people will dramatically over fold to huge over bets, in which case their increase in calling rate to a smaller bet might be sufficient to make a smaller bet more profitable, but on the whole, a bet 10 times as big won’t see only 10% of the calls.
  • With a really weak hand that has almost no chance of being ahead (the pure case also has no outs), its only path to victory is through a bluff
    • will a bet be called at minimum defense frequency or higher; if not, then the bluff will be profitable on its own
    • will I have effective nut type hands that I will play the same way; if so, then I want to find the right ratio bluffs to further drive up my capture rate of the pot