Guess the Hand #1

Going to post a few of these. I am trying to get back to GTO fundamentals while taking as many spots as possible without being a complete fish.

Guess the Hand - #1

Context: I had been at this table for about 1.5 orbits and played 1 hand, winning the blinds with a standard open. Eddie seems like a normal field player; no notes, and he hadn’t done anything visibly out of line that I had seen. Table is playing somewhat on the passive side both pre and post flop.

You can guess my specific hand or put me on a range/class of hands. Winner / closest to the pin gets 1 brownie point. Good luck.


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Good guess, but I’m not sure how much preflop raising 33 wants to do from upfront. 33 probably also bets the flop at some frequency for value/protection against overcards and flush draws. Finally, if I had 33 as played I might c/r the river at some frequency given that villain either has a flush or not, and if so almost always bets, and if not rarely calls a river bet anyway.

99 is the obvious value hand. You could go for the c/r on the river, but there’s no guarantee that a passive player is going to bet the river with a low flush on a paired board. I guess 73s could be a candidate too. I would expect most of your flush draws to c-bet the flop, or bet bigger on the turn.

It’s hard to think of many good bluffs. Eddie can definitely have a flush as played, but shouldn’t really have many Ax suited hands, so the Ah isn’t all that relevant, and I can’t see how we get here with too many single heart combos anyway. 88’s with a heart could get here, but also has some showdown value.
You can certainly make a case for going all in with any two cards, because you can have all the boats and Eddie is mostly limited to low flushes at best, but that doesn’t help much with putting you on a range. I guess having a 3 would be nice because Eddie could get here with pocket 3’s, and that’s never folding. There’s some Xc3c hands that have a bit too much back door equity to always bet the flop that might get here like this and are in a GTO big blind raising range.

I’d have to go with 99 as the most likely option I think.

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Yeah, idk about other people but I definitely don’t play many flush draws this way. I wish I’d had 9 9 :wink:

This is starting to feel a little unfair, so…


Can’t seem to open the hint… but this seems like a fun game so I’ll give it a shot. I’ve never read a poker book so my guess is more what I feel could play this way… perhaps something like a suited J10 (not hearts) as I don’t believe many would play a flopped flush draw this way. Q helped with some equity & had to jam river when flush hit and your draw bricked

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I think you’re just supposed to read the URL, it didn’t help me that much.

I considered JT - I was mostly thinking JTo with a heart - but either way I think JT just calls sometimes pre, mostly bets the flop, and would bet larger on the turn.

The 977 flop is so good for us, the only hands that really want to check back are hands that can check raise and hands that might turn equity but are fairly trash right now.

I’d be betting bigger on turn with my semi-bluff hands after everyone has optionally checked to me, so I think the small bet is very polarizing here. Trash hands looking to just take the pot down against other weak hands, or really strong hands looking to induce or at least get some money into the pot.

The all-in on the river is again extremely polarizing. I expect Eddie to have a lot of middling pocket pairs, maybe a nine, which hands like AA with a heart beat, so we shouldn’t be shoving those. It sounds like we can eliminate the value hands, so that would leave hands like K8 and A8. Hands that might have picked up a draw on the turn, but on the Q are only drawing to over-card outs. A8o and K8o aren’t supposed to raise much pre though, so we can’t really be blocking the flush. 64o with a heart maybe, but that’s getting a bit wild.

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Oh I see now… anyway, I like the way you are thinking. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see

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+1 Brownie Point for @lihiue

Closest to the pin with K8o. I had KsJd.

On the flop my hand is horse sh!t and my range isn’t thrilled about this board either, so I check. When he checks behind I am already excluding a lot of his stronger hands. I think he doesn’t have 2 hearts very often now, and almost certainly he doesn’t have a 7.

On the turn I pick up a gutshot but more importantly, a face card that I can start representing. I figure 1/3 is a good size here as we’re either way ahead or way behind with the hand I’m trying to rep (AQ or sumthin).

On the river I just don’t think he has enough flushes, and I still have AA/QQ/99 in range. Also I just think he will fold to this bet a lot, honestly. I could pretend I had some fancy blocker reasoning but in the moment it was more like, “oh, he checked flop and flatted a small turn bet, I’m gonna rip it on this dude and he’s gonna fold a ton”

This was probably a silly hand to pick to start this guessing game as it was more or less a random bluff. I promise the next episode will have a modicum of actual theory behind it lol.

Thanks for playing!

I put your pre-flop raise with Ks+ your river bet was a bluff to the flush

Half-right! I had KJ offsuit, no heart.