Fold the boat?

Coder,

Last time I ask’d someone … uhhh, don’t matter.
ooops sry, thks for the correction thought it was dumb if ask me.

That is logical reasoning, and seems correct. No debate here.

hey @1Warlock , Yes, BlackWidow is amazing. I just don’t think you can discount Leaderboard players, many have a pretty good game. Its the leaderboard it self that is exploitable, if allowed to be.
Sassy

I didn’t mean to discount them at all. They are playing an effective style that gets results. My problem is with the rest of the player pool because the leaderboards make the game highly exploitable. If people aren’t concerned with leaderboards, why are they not exploiting those who are? You understand the wrinkles that promotions create so you understand the dynamics of doing well in them. Look at them from the other side and you will immediately see how these wrinkles create opportunities for non-promotion players to exploit.

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ok warlock can you elaborate more on your comment in your response? if its so basic and obvious that u dont want to explain it then maybe u can explain it and teach me something. im also talking about the top 2 or 3 spots at the end of the month with a few games left after playing 60 ( high ) or 90 games ( medium ) and not the 5 thru 20 or more spots. im also not talking about any promos which i have never played or will play. How do u exploit leader board strategy against a player that mastered it if u dont know anything about leader board strategy? do u think its easy to exploit or not exploit 3 peets for 1st place on high sit n gos 180 games in a row in 1st place with not the same players every game as u assume or exploit a player that 3 peets monthly for 270 games in a row ( medium stakes ) whether u are exploited or not? if u could elaborate more on that than maybe i could 12 peet 12 months in a row. no matter how u slice and dice it you are still competing against any given set of players for 60 or 90 games each month. when u know u will be top 3 at the beginning of the month the leader board strategy only applies to the last 5 or so games at the end of the month if its close points wise…other than that you are playing a normal tourney strategy up to that point so as far as exploiting or not exploiting you are still facing anywhere from bingo players to top tourney players in which the variance of play style in each game is less exploitable than playing the same caliber of players…any advice on how to dodge that play to maybe break the 3 peet monthly record with that many games? a top player in sit n gos or Mtts is harder than u think to exploit. ( leader boards or no leader boards for that matter )

Pugg, ok in many cases 1st to act has that advantage at that point in the game however u said if no one has anything on the flop right? how do u know what your opponent has on the flop? if im the opponent and think you are bluffing me to take my SB in that situation than i re raise a counter bluff on you in that situation and you fold your bluff and i take your BB and your bet and call it a hand and move on. At this point in the game it comes down to bluffs,stealing blinds, and other psychological factors. It also doesnt only happen when your short stacked because at that point in showdown the blinds are super high and if both players are playing somewhat tight until the right opportunity to move in occurs then those bluffs and counter bluffs will continue longer.

@floridajetski - ok, there’s a lot to unpack here and I’ll try to do it as concisely as possible. A few things first:

  1. No one is diminishing your accomplishments here. I spoke generally about leaderboards because you brought it up. I am not one to disparage the accomplishments of any other player.
  2. I would never post in a public forum advice on how to exploit any specific player, period.
  3. Regarding my total lack of knowledge about leaderboards and their strategies, I think you may wish to rethink this one. I was one of the people to point out the kink in the system years ago when they were only paying the top 5 spots. I hope my input had some bearing on the sites decision to change that scoring system to eradicate the distortion it created. Structures are a big deal to me and I make it a point to understand them. I don’t know if I ever did leaderboard thing here or not. I do know that I’ve done several for money and have had good results. 120 games was a slow week for me BTW. 500+ games a month was my average and I was nowhere near the top of the volume chain. The results are public and I can direct you to them via DM if you want. I also absolutely annihilated a training site’s leaderboard and can show you those results as well.

As to the exploits available to people not playing for leaderboards vs those who are, it really is simple. Take yourself out of the equation so we don’t get an emotional response please. If player A has an incentive to ladder-up and not bust out earlier than they must and player B doesn’t, then there is an imbalance of incentives. If player A cares whether he busts out 4th or 9th while player B sees both results as identical, player B can leverage that imbalance. He does this by applying more pressure to player A and taking more marginal spots. He would find out the “pain threshold” of Player A and use that knowledge to his advantage. For example, can he get Player A to fold top pair, weak kicker if it means his whole stack? How about 2nd pair with 3 to a flush on board?

Again, not talking about you specifically but only about leaderboard considerations in general - whenever an imbalance of incentives exists, exploits are available. The fact that players seem to be unwilling or unable to take these edges mystifies me. The essence of poker is knowing what your edges are and using them.

That’s all the time I have now and I hope that clears some things up. I’d be happy to talk to you more about this topic directly if you want. I’d also be happy to sit down for a game or two with you if you’d like. I’m always happy to have a good game when presented with the chance.

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If you re-read my previous comment, I acknowledge you’re bluffing into your opponent blind from early position.

What makes this a profitable move or not is your knowledge of your opponent, and your relative stack sizes.

If you know they will fold with nothing, you can count on the odds giving them nothing on the flop 2/3 of the time. It’s not hard to bluff profitably if you can expect your opponent to fold 2/3 of the time.

It can be dangerous if you give away too many chips betting into a strong hand, but against the right opponent, it can be profitable.

I totally understand what you are talking about but those type of players dont even look at the boards because they are not playing them and have no clue that you are and are on top of the boards so i dont think they are playing in that manner against you if they dont know or care. It doesnt affect the top board player much because they are hard to exploit by most opponents and they will play their game and dont get intimidated by those types. If i think i should call,bet,raise,etc then i will because if i happen to bust out in a bad placing i know that im taking 1st,2nd or 3rd on most other games putting me on the top of the board anyway by just playing my normal play most of the games. Im mainly talking about close top 3 finishes at month end as far as playing certain hands differently as opposed to those same hands/scenarios earlier on when the diff of finishing 1st or 2nd place etc is not on the line yet and the determination of that finish comes down to 1 actual placing of 1 or 2 games. The players not playing the boards dont care nor do they even know whos on the boards,whos playing them, and where they stand. Its the players playing each other for the board spots that you should be referring to. I only brought it up here to expand on the thought process of analyzing the initial hand post on this thread. This really needs to be discussed in a leader board strategy thread or better yet in this case a sit n go leader board strategy thread.

ya ok, misunderstood you…i thought you were talking heads up at showdown, then i was thinking how can 2 players be short stacked at showdown…its the opposite, they both are heavily stacked, thats what threw me off, but i will have to agree with you after re reading that. That can be very productive to get you back in the game and i utilize that strategy a lot whenever i see fit.

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Take for example SSSnGs 18ppl 6max tables. I personally don’t see … when blinds are 1000/2000 and player stacks are 13000, 9000, 7000 … while yes 7000 is 3.5bb, in reality its 2.3 orbits @ 3k per orbit.
If the leader doesn’t swallow 1 of those 2, then they combine. Worst case senario here is 13k vs 16k. Even 16k had 5.3 orbits they can play if they folded every 1 of them. Even just a 9 player SnG, you can get to showdown where both players have no room to manuver really.

I’m guessing thats what puggywug was saying, because in My opinion, both of those players would be shortstacked. Anyone with 8 bb or 5.3 orbits, and is chipleader barely… HU … then stealing blinds becomes critical. Once blinds cut that in 1/2 ( go up to 2000/4000 ) then that 8bb vs 6.5bb becomes 4bb vs 3.25bb , 5.3 orbits become 2.5 orbits vs 2 orbits. This is totally different that “The Opposite” where I’m guessing both players has 50-75bb or more.

Therefore 75bb vs 50bb is much much different than 7.5bb vs 5bb, once you get HU.

I shouldn’t be telling you FloridaJetSki, anything you don’t already know. SnGs have a better chance of being in this posistion than do MTTs. Better players usually keep the game moving along to avoid this … but when ppl are taking thier sweet time to bet and you get down to 4 ppl, paying top 3… where noone wants to go out 4th, quickly the blinds catch up with the stacks rather than the other way around.

You still in this situation have the possibility… that the LB only counts “wins” in a promotion setting, and doesn’t effect monthly reg LBs. OR its for reg LB, where the difference between 1st-2nd is more t-pts than than the last few places paid.

FloridaJetSki, the current formula for t-pts , in a reg SnG LB senario, is already exploitable. If on the other hand pts were rewarded inversely on posistion finished, then that exploit goes away. ( 1st-9pts , 9th-1pt ). Add to that any 50% rule for participation, and the level 3 boot for non-playing, You have 2 more holes to plug as far as exploits go. Personally I’d eliminate both, thus leaving no exploitable avenues open to players.

Ski, I’m not diminishing your acomplishments in any way. 3-peat in 3 consecutive months, two or more times… Well, :clap: nicely done. I have @least won a SnG monthly board before, and know the demands of game mgmt.

I think we should splinter this thread off to a new thread, we are stray’n off topic because part of the hand analysis for “fold the boat” includes the fact that this was a Promo game and should be respected as such.
Sassy

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This would explain a lot. Its hard for me to imagine people being offered free information that would bring some advantage and them not bothering to even look at it. Kind of sad but it does fit with the overall theme that most players will never make any effort to improve their games. Many seem to be content to have a hard ceiling on their abilities. Others just want to gamble it up. Well, good for those of us who put in the work because the money has to come from somewhere :slight_smile:

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At first I thought this was about the “marathon” style LBs, but quickly realized in a subsequent post that you were probably talking about the weekly or monthly leagues.

There was an event earlier this year in which I may have I exploited the “marathon” types. I started playing these 18-person SnGs toward the end of the day when everyone was in a mad dash for the total points leaderboard. I didn’t have a lot of time left to play, so I went after the “first 7” instead.

I pretty much just focused on staying alive as long as I could in the 6 games I played. Everyone was busting out quick trying to tack on more points to their total. The only real challenge came from the final 3-6 players who were just playing a normal game. By beating a few of them and consistently getting a top 4 or even a win, I secured the win on the “first 7” board.

Anyway, in regards to OP, I wouldn’t have even played that hand at all… pre-flop …or post-flop if I somehow got sucked into seeing a flop. There’s not a lot of ways to win that situation, but a whole lot of ways it can easily go really wrong. Mix in a never-fold player-base… and, well… you get the idea. Save your chips, wait for a better spot.

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Any 1s 7/ best 7, 1st 20/ best 20 means nothing in any game type leader board and you will just get reckless players in those games or many/most players that cant maintain a position for the long run ( meaning best average of 60 games or more (if needed) on monthly high stakes leader board, best average of 90 games or more ( if needed ) on montly medium stakes leader board, or 120 games or more (if needed) on monthly low stakes leader board. The 1st/best 7 or 1st/best 20 on those boards means nothing as far as skill as it is too small of a sample size of games played, just as 1warlock mentioned on another post that 50 hands,5000 hands,or 50,000 hands is just too small of a sample size in many things in poker.and he is spot on with that. The only leader boards that show any somewhat accurate skill are the ones where u have the the largest amount of games played on Replay where it takes your average points per game for those and if you play more then you can go up or down in average points per game ( which determines your finish at month end ) and not all the other boards on the site with low game amounts or ones like the best/of where the player that plays the most games or more games than the other player will have an automatic advantage to finish higher on the boards then the player that plays less games. Anyone can play unlimited games where you can only go up in average points to finish higher on those boards at any skill level. The only games that dont have the 1st/best of on weekly,monthly, or yearly finishes are the monthly sit n go boards. It should also be that format for Mtts too instead of 1st/best of for the week,month, or year, Or at least get rid of the best/of on all the leader boards to prevent flawed skill and finishing results on the leader boards. The best/of only diminishes the value of any leader board and brings in so many more reckless players that have no or less respect for the game. Poker was never meant to evaluate who can play the most games or who can play more games than others to determine any type of skill or finishing results.

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I think you may be misreading the intention of this post and the purposes of some of the leaderboards. I think all @Fozman was trying to point out was that promotions can create opportunities for people not participating in them to profit from. A key part of poker is identifying these opportunities and taking advantage of them.

I also think its a mistake to look at all these promotions/leaderboards as measures of long-term success or skill. Look at many of these things from the perspective of the operator (Replay). Generating more play benefits them, right? It yields more rake through volume of games while at the same time creating a better environment for players who want to get into games. Larger fields and more games running means a healthier environment, better customer experiences and so on. Therefore I look at many of these promotions as a rakeback type of thing - giving a percentage of the rake back to the players in the form of bonuses while creating the overall increased activity that benefits the operator.

IMO, people here worry too much about whatever ranking thing is going on at any given moment and lose site of the bigger picture. Results take care of themselves in the long run. In order for everyone at the site to have a long-run to get to, the site itself must continuously stimulate activity and interest.

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Ohh comon … FloridaJetSki ,
So the only LBs (good) you mention are the ones you Won, and I watched for awhile and most ppl once they get thier 60,90,120 games , stop and play something else.
No mention of promos, and and " 1st of " there is no wiggle room you get … like when you can average out over 60/90/120 games.
I agree any marathon or best of, rewards playing huge amounts of games.
I think points in general need to be re-thought, but even SnG weekly boards are 1st of/best of. Only monthly SnGs are wierd, everything else is the same thing.
1st of xxx, is a much better challange, to me, than Ave of xxx or Best of xxx. I bet 1st of 7 really cramps your style.

There also are a couple fairly good Promotions Replay runs, but again metrics are the key, without degrading basic gameplay, so yes it needs to be on Skill.
Sassy

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the original hand was from an Astral Orion SnG. I was jumping back and forth because iz po, and not very good. It was what i could afford.
I never really look at the monthly board, although i like format. It’s one of the few that are based on game average, and not the amount of tournaments you play. I guess first 20 and first 7 do as well, but not the promos. I’m not gonna do that well with playing a lot of games because I play a wide assortment of tournaments. (7.5 - 50 K, MTT, and all the SnGs)
The one time i checked, (very small sample. 12 - 18 tourneys) the 50K was my best earner, at 300%. point is, i never get close to the 60 tourneys i need to compete.

otb. thanks daymon. was adding to UTG, (i.e. UTG+1) incorrect as well?

Yea, I know. I’m still using the constant favorable pot odds as an excuse to open junk from the SB. Starting to see the leak exceeding the profit from getting lucky. (and the occasional strong hand) Also, I’m getting more low cards in front of eyes, coming from my hands via a more balanced range, and not as dependent on the blinds for that. tks, Coder.

first time i noticed, I had 35 KOs (12 th) and 27th in points, with 18 games played. ITM, i devised tricks, and tactics to increase my bust outs. Now I’m 37th in points, with 44 KOs (23rd) with 26 games played. Should have stuck with my original plan, which was to win a few chips, so I could keep playing.

Where does the site report the number of knockouts you’re responsible for?

Only on the toplist ( top 10 )
and any specialized Leaderboard that tracks KOs.

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Warlock you are contradicting yourself in your 2nd paragraph when you say its a mistake to look at leader boards as any measure of long term success or skill. Then in your last paragraph you say results will take care of themselves in the long run. Doesnt make sense to me. So you are saying if someone plays 120 games month after month for a couple years and dominates the top of the boards that it is not a long run as far as Replay? Thats 2,880 games at an average of 100 hands each game. Thats 288,000 hands. That is not considered a long run on Replay? Wow, thats a lot of hands for anyone here. 288,000 hands that you play here doesnt show you any skill level or measure of long term success for a player? I think most players would beg to differ as that is a large sample size, I bet over 90% of players here havnt played that many hands in all games combined over 5 or 6 years. I agree with what u said as far as promos etc. keeping activity up and rakes, diff games/boards for everyone,keeping tables more filled,more tourney times, etc…but that wasnt my main point. It was comparing 1st/7 to best/7 games or 1st of to best/of any amount of games for that matter. Any player can get lucky on 4 or 5 games outta there 1st/7 and win the week but its pretty hard to get lucky on 120 games month after month. Theres a huge difference there. I was also just trying to say that best/of means nothing. Go look at the boards and see the player getting 1st place on 1st/20 for the week and look at that same player getting 10th thru 20th place on best/of for that same week, or the player getting 10th thru 20th on 1st 20 but wins 1st on best/of because they played 40 or 50 games and can only go up playing as many games as they can. Its a simple fact that skill level is flawed when you compare those. Sassy the only or most players that stop after those 60,90,120 games are the top of the board players that have such a high average that if they play more games than their chances of going down in points or spots on the board are much greater than if they play on because at those averages on the top spots if you place 3rd or worse every game then your backing up points wise which could cost you winning the month or losing 2nd to 3rd etc. they only play more games if they need a few more points to pass 3rd or 2nd place but they need to place top 2 any game to do that or they lose points and a possible 2nd or 3rd place finish, unlike your 1st/7 best/7 you play. You cant compare the 2 formats as far as average points per game determining how you finish if you play more then the set number of games which is the most accurate structure you can get on Replay as far as boards are concerned. You have to know the point structure and all or at least most end of month board strategies. FYI i dont play boards any more and havnt for awhile and never and wont play promos but do know all the strategies and structures from playing so many sit n gos in the past. As far as those being the only weird ones? serious…the only/most fair board on here is the largest sample size of games with average of points for all games played (meaning the most possible games availabe on a set amount of games board and only taking averages from all games played if you exceed that set amount of games ) not short game amounts or best/of…so thats any monthly sit n go board only. your so called weird ones are best 7 . or best bingo 7 many call it, or best 20 on sit n gos. best of/anything really. The more games u play ( except best/ of
games/boards the less likely that luck will prevail over skill just like rings. The more games and hands you play turns into skill prevailing over luck ( as long as you are winning games/chips of course) Are u gonna measure skill in rings on any player at 500 hands or 50,000 hands if both those players won chips ? Long term winning % trumps short term winning % IMO. Im done, was just trying to lend some advice from experience. I will comment on any board related questions/opinions/advice,etc if a leader board thread is started because this original topic is derailed.and becoming too detailed towards leader boards. Cheers

Nope - I did not say that we shouldn’t look at any of the leaderboards or any of the leaderboards in aggregate over time. I said that we shouldn’t look at every single promotion as a definitive guide to ranking overall skill. Some give good metrics because they have larger sample sizes and/or run repeatedly over time. Others are short-term deals. Not every leaderboard or promotion measures the same thing, nor can their results all be given equal weight. Most are implemented to increase volume and add incentives for players to compete over in the short run. That’s all they should be viewed as. Now if someone is winning the same promotion over and over again, then I think its fair to consider that information as a reflection of overall skill relative to the field in that discipline.

Sorry if I wasn’t clear about this. I simply don’t think every single contest should be viewed as more than it is. Just like I don’t think Antonio Esfandiari suddenly became one of the best all-time tournament players by winning a single $1M buy-in event, I don’t think any real information can be (or should be) extracted from any single promotional event. They are nice accomplishments and they generate interest but they aren’t great reflections of skill over time - unless someone is winning them consistently over time. On the other hand, I think its perfectly proper to offer congratulations to players who win a game, an event or a promotion. Someone else’s accomplishments don’t detract from out own.

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Unless someone is winning them consistently over time you said. That is what i was talking about as far as most of my message. The same goes for rings being won consistently over time. What is your definition of ( over time or the long run ) because i gave you some concrete long time frames and amounts of games and hands there? If you read your 2nd paragraph again you will see that leader boards were included as far as not using them for the long run. As far as diff promos i have no idea because i have never played them so I dont know what they entail other then them being a much smaller sample size for the week or month. Agree with you as far as being the all time greatest tourney player by winning a single tourney for 1 mill or any amount. I guess it depends on all the other places he finished in his tourneys but 1 win is just ludicrous to determine that. IMO the larger the sample size as far as games and hands played in any event or game type will show more accurate results as far as skill level for any particular game type,board,etc. but i know you already know that.