Faux Flush

Such a short post but stretching your veracity along your nose.
Please show me where I INSIST that they REPRESENT the NORM.
That is three fact-free things you accuse me of without any basis in truth .
I’m expecting better from you!

And yes, I think this is not only correct, it’s the heart of the matter.

If we take 6 dice, put them in a cup, shake them and let them roll, they will sometimes come up 1-2-3-4-5-6, which can be described as a pattern. If we roll them enough times, this pattern is certain to arise.

But we have no way of predicting when it will show up.

The insurance industry is built on this sort of thing. They might know that 12 people of every 100 will die in a given year, and they have collected enough data to know this with some certainty. 12 people (or whatever the number actually is) dying every year, year after year, can certainly be described as a pattern, but that doesn’t tell them WHICH 12 people will pass.

So yes, patterns can and do arise within a series of random events, but since they are unpredictable, they aren’t useful.


OK, so now you are admitting that there are patterns.HERESY!
I never said, suggested or insisted that they were predictable. I merely said that I noticed them and I asked if others noticed them. But somehow my question got twisted into something it was not.

It’s a well accepted practice in the insurance industry to use those ‘random’ patterns to predict an outcome to protect themselves. If you’ve had a teenage boy and girl, you would know that they are charged differently. A truck pays more than a car, a construction worker pays more than an office worker and so on. It has nothing to do with who you are

LOL, here’s a pattern for you. 2nd hand I just played was another faux flush!

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Well yeah, anything that can happen will happen if you give it long enough, which is why people ask about sample sizes.

One can get dealt pocket aces twice in a row, and say, “Ah ha! This site deals more pocket aces than it should. I played 2 hands and they were both aces!.”

That same person might then say, “I played another 440 hands, and didn’t get dealt pocket aces even once. Clearly, the site saw my first post and changed the software so I wouldn’t get aces!”

But that fella would have gotten aces once in 221, which is what we would expect.

And Click, I am not “admitting” anything. I’m trying to listen to what you are saying, then explain things the best I know how. One can look at a cloud and see a unicorn, but it’s still a random arrangement and meaningless.

WOW, so now you are afraid of ‘admitting’ something you clearly did and in the same breath bring up unicorns. Who’s your counsel, caus you need help.
You have accused me of things I didn’t say, wrote or thought and you fall in a huff and a puff over the word ‘admit’? What are you afraid of?
You keep on making up analogies that have no bearing on what I have asked. This kind of diverting of attention is strange from someone who claims to be trying to listen to what I am saying.

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The word “admit” to me implies some sort of reluctance or hiding of a fact. I’m niot afraid of stating my beliefs, but these are not admissions.

I need help, OK.

I have accused you of nothing. In fact, most of what I have said was not addresed to you at all. I post my opinions for the general community, and rarely to any one person.

I was trying to listen to what you were saying. I was trying to help you. But from now on, I am sticking my fingers into my ears and saying “Nananananana, I can’t hear you.”

Oh, and by the way, internet convention says that when you can’t refute the facts and instead resort to groundless personal attacks, you have lost. Rest assured that I will not gloat over my rather meaningless victory.

But I will answer your original question… Has anyone else noticed a monotone flop?

My answer: duh

Have a nice day.

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You are a hoot, I guess you don’t really read your own posts.
I’ll repost an earlier posts of mine that you conveniently ignored caus you can’t refute the facts. So I guess according to the your rules, I WIN!

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I just can’t help myself!

@Click, @wildpokerdude, you can pick any number of examples out of 10 or 20 or 100 or 500 hands and they are all completely meaningless in the statistical sense.

You can pick words out of sentences and sentences out of paragraphs and it is all completely meaningless.

Mathematics, just like English and Chinese and Estonian, is a language. It is far more precise than any spoken language and so any “translation” to English (or Chinese or Estonian) is necessarily imprecise. If you do not care to learn the language, that is ok, but you must understand that you will not, can not, understand the nuances and culture.

All of this to say, yet again, that you need to go away and learn something about normal distributions, random number generation, Dunning-Kruger effect and so on.

Really, is there no moderator that can shut this thread down?

We seem to be arguing the same things that occurred 3 or 4 years ago on the “the fairness debate” thread.

Yes, I am quite happy to call for “censorship” when I am asking that questions are not repeated ad infinitum. If that means that the participants are required to read an “old” thread, so be it. I don’t have the time or the interest in debating or responding to ages old questions that have been resolved.

(angry) TA


yet here you are debating lol. run along and let us discuss what we want.

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I love it! Someone who feels so superior that instead of ignoring a post he doesn’t like, feels the need to censor. If you feel so threatened by my post that you call for censorship, maybe there is something nefarious going on…

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Here are my numbers. This is from my last 926 flops because that’s what I can see on my activity page. The numbers are as a % of the time the flop actually happened, regardless of whether I was still in the hand.

Times happened As a % of flops Times expected Expected as a % of flops
Flop happened and I had suited pocket cards 217 23.43% 217.9 23.53%
Monotone flop (whether or not I had suited pocket cards) 52 5.62% 47.9 5.18%
Faux flush 7 0.76% 9.5 1.03%
Flopped flush 2 0.22% 1.8 0.20%

So yes, this pattern happens. It happens about as often as I would expect, at about 1% of the flops. To put it another way if I play 100-200 hands per day then I would expect this to happen 1-2 times per day and that is what’s happening here.


Thanks for the data!
I looked under ‘hands’ instead of ‘activity’ that only gives me 10 hands at a time.
My flop suited seems higher, but of course this is a small sample and only one faux flush.

Yep, anything can happen in a small number of hands. When we’re talking about things that we expect to happen 1-5% of the time we need at least a few hundred hands (and probably more like a few thousand) in our sample before we can draw any conclusions about whether it’s really happening more or less than we expect.

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Nice data crunching! Here are my numbers from my last 3755 flops:

Times happened As a % of flops Times expected Expected as a % of flops
Flop happened and I had suited pocket cards 927 24.69% 883.6 23.53%
Monotone flop (whether or not I had suited pocket cards) 196 5.22% 194.5 5.18%
Faux flush 48 1.28% 38.7 1.03%
Flopped flush 5 0.13% 7.5 0.20%

I’m looking forward to my pending 2.5 flopped flushes :wink:

Edit: A decent number of my last 5000 hands were heads-up. And since suited hands almost always want to see a flop heads-up, I’m wondering if this could explain my slightly higher than expected “Flop happened and I had suited pocket cards” number.


How are you to retrieving hand histories on this site, anyway?

Unfortunately, you can’t export full hand histories. But the activities page displays your hole cards and the community cards for all your ring games hands of the last few days. Then you use your favorite programming language to extract the data.

No. The 883.6 is the number of times you would expect to be dealt suited cards in 3755 hands, and makes no reference to whether you saw a flop or not. Even if you saw the flop every single time you were suited, 927 is a little higher than expected.

Your numbers do seem reasonably close for that sample size though.

I made this spreadsheet where you can copy-paste in the source html from the activity page - the spreadsheet parses and lists the cards automatically. From there you can use Excel formulas to count faux flushes or whatever other things you want to see.

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