Effective stacks: 196bb
Dealt to BB (Hero): Qs5s
SB raises to 3bb, BB calls
Calling Q5s is pretty standard.
Ks6s4d (pot: 6bb)
BB checks, SB checks
I check to the preflop aggressor.
Ks6s4d Kh (pot: 6bb)
BB bets 12bb, SB calls
Since SB checked the flop, it is much less likely SB has a king. Kings would generally bet the flop to charge draws and get multiple streets of value from worse hands.
However, since I check range on the flop, I have all combos of kings. I will often overbet turn and river (if it is a blank) with trips and bluffs. Facing an overbet, SB will have difficulty defending his range. It is difficult for SB to have a strong hand and will be forced to call down with some pairs. By using an overbet, I get maximum value with my trips. For bluffs, I can choose from flushes, straight draws, and overcards to the six.
Ks6s4d Kh 9s (pot: 30bb)
BB bets 30bb, sb bet 180bb, BB folds
I made my flush, so I decide bet it for value. Against a pot size bet, my opponent needs to call 1/2 of his range. Against a pot size bet, SB needs to call more than just flushes to prevent him to get overrun by bluffs. In addition, my opponent may have a better flush. For these two reasons, I decided not to overbet.
When my opponent shoves, I decided to fold. I don’t have that many better hands. I don’t have that many combos of full houses: K9, K6s, K4s, and 44. In addition, I won’t overbet every combo of full houses on the turn. I also don’t have that many nut flushes. Most Axs hands are 3bet preflop, some nut flushes won’t overbet turn and some nut flushes will check raise river.
When my opponent bets 180bb into a pot of 60bb, I need to call 25% of my hands to prevent him from bluff exploiting me. 33% of my hands are bluffs. That means I need to call 37% of my value hands. Given I will also bet many weaker flushes, Q5s probably makes it into the top 37% of my value.
However, I don’t really see anybody bluffing for 180bb. Sb shouldn’t have much full houses. Two pairs, sets, and top pairs should generally be bet on the flop given this board. I guess my opponent could have 99 or decided to slow play a nutted hand. I don’t think my opponent would shove a nut flush since I could have a full house. It is also really hard for my opponent to have a bluff. If my opponent has a K, would he really shove instead just calling on the river? I guess my opponent could have A6 or A4 with the nut flush blocker.
What are your opinions on my bet sizing? Would you call the river jam?