Downswings and Bad Beats


I agree with you Joe , only reason I stay here is because of some nice people that I have fun with on the tables. This is far from poker , it’s just free entertainment. Good luck , my friend , on whatever site you end up playing on , they will be lucky to have you .

sure it was a bad call on his part and he was damn lucky…but donks win everywhere…plus its replay poker and your top 200 player that means you also have gotten extremely lucky lots of times…,wasnt your turn this time thats all…


What?!!?? Cut it out! This isn’t the Joe Dirk I know with sharp, crisp, dead-on analysis. Let’s be honest here; the guy wrongly called you, and not just sucked out, he won hands down on the flop with a high straight!

But the reality is Joe, you had AQ (which even 2 2 beats) against QT, and if 87 vs QT is only a slight underdog, then so is an AQ vs QT. Indeed, a ten flops instead of the straight, and he still takes the hand unless you hit an A. So something is odd here.

The Joe Dirk I have come to know and respect would have never jumped all over this player and leave Replay Poker. Something is amok. There are extenuating circumstances.

Say it isn’t so Joe. What’s going on pal?


Not too much of a bad call IMHO, villain had position on him, more chips and huge preflop bets always smell fishy when all players are still pretty deep (e.g. 22-55). I made similar experiences in high stakes tourneys: when only 5 players are paid players are willing to gamble to stack another player with 1:2 odds.

I totally agree with Scratch.The JoeDirk I know from his postings here finally will come over tilting after 2 or 3 beers, smile & join us again.


Talking about bad beats:

sorry, m8, it really ws a 1-outer

I think if a Q on river then you would also win, so three outs.


Wrong Scratch, Galak is right; one out!!! Dern Moderators!!!

All comments welcome


1 out, 3 outs???

still a bad beat but there are 7 outs on the river: one 8, three (not2) Q’s, AND three J’s

Right, and following the rule of two 14%, almost the number shown in the calculator.

Tx, yiazmat!

yw :slight_smile:

Thanks for your response. I will take a step back from my original insulting tone toward my opponent, but I still believe that calling is the wrong decision and it should not even be under consideration. The exact preformance of the hands against each other is not relevant but how QTo performs against my possible range of hands is.

First of all, table dynamics are important. It was late in a 1m chip tourney, so we can assume that our opponents are invested in the outcome and high stakes players, not bingo fish or complete novices.

From my perspective, I believe that I’m the best player, based on my experience at the table, but I also know they are capable of making reasonable folds. So when presented with a decent starting hand like AQo, which misses a lot of flops, I would like to win the pot uncontested because I am confident that my opponents would raise any hand they would call a shove with and the blinds are so large relative to our stack sizes.

My opponent thought I was playing loose because I had raised several hands recently. Although I did have big hands (QQ and KQ), let’s say he is correct because I will apply that pressure even with marginal bluff hands like weak aces when the blinds are large and my opponents are passive.

All of those dynamics included, what should he do with QTo? I can’t see the actual replay now, so I can’t do the math but let’s say he needs to call 12k to win the 16k already in the pot. By my math, he needs 43% equity. Even against an ace lower than AT, he has 40-44% which is marginal. Against baby pairs he has enough, but barely (47ish). And then there are the premium hands. He is crushed by TT+, AK, AQ, AT, KQ, even QJ. Would he really assign me a range weaker than pocket pairs, Ax, maybe KQ? I sure as heck would not, and he does not perform well against that range (I’d guess his equity is in the low 30s). I would also add that I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be putting me on an even stronger shoving range, considering that I am a high ranked player and hadn’t been shoving much. If I were in his place, I might put the range at 88+, A9+, against which QTo is a big underdog (probably in the mid to upper 20s). The actual range I would do this with is 88/99+ and AJ+, so he is crushed. Sometimes i wouldn’t shove AA or KK but sometimes I would. He has about 25% equity against my actual range, which is horrible.

To put it another way, to call a shove you would want to be ahead a good amount of the time. What hands is he actually ahead of? Basically none. If the shove were with any 2 cards or the bottom of my range, then ok, but he has played against me enough to know that I’m not going to do that. It’s the final table of a 1m chip mtt and I’m ranked 180! The only conceivable actual hand he is ahead of is JTs, which is a tiny part of a very strong range (and I would never actually shove like that with JTs).

QT is a fine hand to see a flop with if you are deep stacked, but you do not want to gamble your tournament life with queen high, and the math supports that. I regret assuming that it was common knowledge. I’d like to know your thoughts.

“Oh, he’s raising 15 BB UTG for half of his stack, must be a strong hand, my QTo are probably crushed, so I better fold.” is not the way most tournament players on replay are thinking even in the high stakes tourneys. Its more like: “15BB? Are you kidding me? I lost already a few pots against this guy, he can’t have it all the time. He probably has 72o and wants to push me out of the hand, so come on let’s rumble. I either lose and still have some chips or I bust him and he’s on tilt for the next 6 weeks … Oh, I won, mission accomplished!”

On a more serious note I’d say AQo is not good enough to go to war with in this situation with both players still pretty deep stacked.

Just my 2€cent


1 Like

Or a jack

this kid is bitching cus he lost a hand? awwww

I am a low ranked player with moderate experience of poker. I play my hand, not the other players hand. I think you are taking this game far too seriously! It is toytown, for goodness sake. A GAME! Fake chips, fake hands on a fake computer program! The dealing STINKS! It is never ever in this world RANDOM. It is fixed to a seat at a table at best. Get that seat and play sensibly and you’ll win no matter what anyone else does! The number of times I get beat on a kicker is absolutely rediculous and as for this black friday tour currently running, that is the biggest load of crap going as far as the dealing is concerned! I have had it with this site. Too much crap and babies who complain about other players when they lose! GROW UP. A GAME IS A GAME. If you aint having fun LEAVE. That’s what I am doing as soon as I post this!

with 30 percent chance ace on the flop and turn , river. pushing ace 10 and above is fine. Even king jack suited

just get it in or stop and go half in and push on the flop if u hit.

if he has 2 7 he is 3 to one dog to win with over cards.