I am of two minds about early stages:
Loose Aggressive Early Stage Strategy Sometimes I play as many hands as possible as the blinds are small, meaning Stack to Pot Ratio (SPR) will be high post flop. A high SPR leaves more room for mistakes, which means we can get more return on any edge we may have against our opponents. For instance, J7s is not a very good hand, but if Villain can’t fold QJ when it flops J 7 2 rainbow and we raise all-in over their reasonably sized bet, suddenly J7s has a lot of upside.
Tight Passive Early Stage Strategy More recently, I have been taking kind of the opposite approach: I mostly treat the first 3-4 blind levels as if they don’t exist. I fold most hands and only play the top of my range for a VPIP, unless I am in great position (I will still speculate from BTN and CO because those spots are just so lucrative against a mostly over-folding Replay player pool. Being last to act and stealing small to mid-size pots is a very reliable way to build a stack and avoid more marginal decisions later when the blinds go up). As the saying goes, “you can’t win the tournament early, but you sure can lose it.”
I would suggest experimenting with both these strategies to see which suits your playing style better. IMO, both are totally sound if executed properly. Being LAG at the early stages doesn’t have to mean we take on a bunch of needless risk, as long as we’re tactical about which spots to continue in; conversely, being tight/passive early doesn’t have to preclude building a big stack. Sometimes I will reach the Final Table having only voluntarily played a half dozen hands—but if those hands are KK, 99, AQs, KTs, 98s, and 33 (all of which could easily win a big, contested pot), there’s still a good chance that I will have an above-average stack by the late stages.
In general, if your table seems tight/passive, play more hands and bet more frequently for a smaller size. If your table seems loose/aggressive, play fewer hands and bet less frequently, but use a larger size when you do bet.
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As the tournament progresses and the blinds increase, how do you approach changing your strategy? What are some common mistakes to avoid during this phase?
By far the most common mistake as blinds get more significant is that players overadjust and tighten up too much. To be sure, we must exercise careful judgment about when to VPIP if our stack is only 20-30bb deep; opening for 2-3bb, continuing on the flop, and then being forced to fold really sucks now. We’ve just lost 20% of our stack without realizing our equity. But avoiding this situation too assiduously is an even greater error.
For example, if it folds to us in the SB and we are confident the player in the BB will fold to a 3x raise with 80% of holdings, it is profitable to open 3x with literally any two cards! If antes are in play, the situation becomes even more extreme (in favor of the bettor).
The single most reliable source of profit in Replay tournaments is stealing blinds from players who do not defend wide enough.
At this stage I am really starting to hone in on gameflow dynamics as well. If my stack is dwindling and I haven’t VPIP’d in, say, two orbits, I will often open any two cards the next time action folds to me in a favorable position (like BTN, CO or HJ). Anyone paying attention at all will likely have noticed that I haven’t played a hand in a while, and I can cash in that “credit” by opening very wide, knowing my opponents will perceive my range to be narrower than it actually is.
Conversely, when I’m on my game, I am also making sure not to run too many speculative opens or raises against the players who are clearly willing to mix it up and don’t like to fold. Against those players, I am looking for more spots where I can leverage their loose play against them: for instance, check-raising a dry flop where I have backdoor draws and overcards to top pair. If Villain is overbluffing when checked too, it will often be very difficult to continue against a c/r! Adjust your strategy based on who is in the pot and who has position.
Another common mistake, especially on Replay, is not raising/betting big enough with our best hands. If three people limp and you wake up with JJ, raising to 3x is a significant error. You are laying good odds to the first caller, and once they call, everyone else is getting really great odds. We profit when our opponents make mistakes; the most common mistake (IMO) is continuing despite not having the proper odds to do so. By laying our opponents a good price to continue, we deny them the opportunity to make a mistake. Don’t worry if “I raised too big and everyone folded”—at least we won the pot! Better than going 5 ways to a flop against uncapped ranges with no clarity about what cards are “safe” for us or not.
And we can now use similar sizing in similar configurations later as a bluff—we know it will work unless they have the top of their range!
