# Correlation analysis between each round

Using simulation I did some analysis to see how the winner of each round (preflop, flop, turn and river) correlates to the next round.

Following is the result:

``````              Hand     Flop     Turn     River     Win

AA          100.00    72.80    59.60    48.40    48.40
KK          100.00    60.80    51.20    40.20    40.20
Any hand    100.00    32.07    29.63    27.29    27.29
Flop          0.00   100.00    64.71    50.60    50.60
Turn          0.00     0.00   100.00    66.53    66.53
River         0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00   100.00
``````

Statistics were taken over thousand deals, with six players. Error is in +/- 2%.

Way to read this: A best hand in preflop round, continues to be in the lead only 32% of the time on flop, 29.63% on turn. 27,29% on river, and wins 27.29%. Lead hand on the flop wins only 51%. Lead on the turn wins 66.53% of the time. River makes difference two third of the time. Likewise.

So then, the lessons to infer here are:

If youâ€™re in the lead early, you should size your bets to close the hand while youâ€™re ahead. Donâ€™t worry about losing value in the form of your bet not being called; take whatâ€™s there.

If youâ€™re thinking youâ€™re behind, or youâ€™re on a draw, you might well want to sustain a call, especially if the bet youâ€™re calling is not very big.

1 Like

@puggywug

Couple of possible deductions, accurate.

Purpose is generic, and to give an insight to the game. Conclusion may be drawn differently depending on the style of the game, and the way one look at it. For instance, I may, being post flop low bet player, conclude that there is nothing wrong in playing for a draw, as I have 35% space on the flop and 33% on the turn. No harm in playing with no hand, as I have 68% space post flop.