Continuation Betting Thoughts

I just performed a little combo counting exercise, looking at some reasonably normal opening ranges from under the gun through the button, counting the combos of each individual card. For each card, the first number listed is under the gun combos, and the last number is button combos.

  • A: 30, 50, 70, 98, 114, 126, 162
  • K: 22, 26, 42, 46, 58, 78, 92
  • Q: 10, 26, 46, 46, 46, 62, 78
  • J: 10, 14, 34, 38, 54, 74, 78
  • T: 6, 14, 22, 34, 50, 50, 74
  • 9: 6, 10, 14, 22, 38, 38, 54
  • 8: -, 6, 10, 18, 22, 38, 50
  • 7: -, 6, 6, 14, 18, 22, 34
  • 6: -, -, 6, 6, 18, 18, 30
  • 5: -, -, 10, 10, 18, 18, 30
  • 4: -, -, -, 10, 14, 18, 26
  • 3: -, -, -, 10, 10, 14, 22
  • 2: -, -, -, 10, 10, 10, 18

Note that whatever the position, with an open raising range, I have more combinations of aces than of any other card, and that kings are normally the second most abundant. From the cut of, note that aces are a little more than twice as abundant as queens, which in turn are nearly twice as abundant as nines, which in turn are twice as abundant as fives.

When trying to decide whether or not to c-bet, you want to consider both nut advantage (the relative abundance of both your range and your opponent’s range of very strong hands, typically 2 pair and better, to your range of very strong hands), and more general range advantage (comparing which range is likely to have an EV edge).

This examination of the combinatorial abundance of each card in a hypothetical raising range can feed into both questions. If we ask the question of how a calling range usually differs from this:

  • some combinations of high cards have been removed, given that cards like AA-TT, AK, AQ and KQs would likely 3 bet at least some of the time
  • there are often additional combinations of middle and especially low cards in many calling ranges

So aces in the flop in particular will be prone to provide significant range advantage to the pre-flop raiser, and will also tend to contribute to nut advantage to some degree also, especially with another face card on the board to go with it.

Note that while opening ranges might be shaped quite differently from this (a LAG range in particular would look quite different), there would still usually be a relative density of larger cards.

Edit: you can look at the “Building Pre-Flop Ranges” thread for examples of ranges quite close to what I used for generating the combo counts at the top.