Burn Cards

Suggestions & Feedback
22

@feelmysins ,
Lets stick to hold’em 6max full table, using burn cards like casino.
Lets also say I’m sb so I get 1st & 7th card dealt.
I have a 52/52 chance of the As being in deck, possible card #1
I have a 46/52 chance of the As being in deck, possible card #2
(Burn) Next 3 cards have the following chances,
a 39/52 , 38/52 , 37/52 chance for the As, posssible flop cards #1-2-3
(Burn) Next card 35/52 chance for the As, possible turn card #4
(Burn) Next card 33/52 chance for the As, possible river card #5

While without burn cards…
(noBurn) a 40/52, 39/52, 38/52 chance for As, flop #1-2-3
(noBurn) 37/52 chance for As, turn #4
(noBurn) 36/52 chance for As, river #5

I understand you saying that what you don’t know and what you do know, therefore all you’ll ever know is up to 7 cards, so your odds are never lower than 1:45. (I think) I also wanna say thanks for trying to go thru this with me, but we need to start talking apples to apples 1st, then we can add in how bananas chg things.

What I’m saying tho, is the “pool” of cards to potentially draw from, decreases and the % chance that the As is already taken increases… with the xtra cards removed from the “pool” of cards to draw from.

If 12 cards are gone, there are 40 cards left, a 76.9% chance to have the As available to be the next card. if you burn tho, there’s only 39, or a 75% chance to be available to be the next card. So by the river the difference is 36-33 or 69.2% or 63.4% chance to be available that As, to be the next card (river). Every card has a 1:52 chance of being any 1 card, because the deck is frozen, once it is shuffled. ( 1.9% chance )

If you get the 1st card, that card remains a 1.9% chance of being any 1 card, such as the As. By the river that chance really is (63.4%)x(1.9%) or 1.2%. ( versus 69.2-1.9 or 1.3% ) chance of getting that As. That is irreguardless of whether or not ANY card is known or unknown. Obviouisly once a “known” As is displayed, there’s a 0% chance of getting it on the next card. Thats if we were dealing all cards face up.

Now lets see odds against… for every 13 cards used, its a 25% chance the As has already been drawn, and the same 1.9% for each aditional card. If there is a 3 card difference due to burn cards, thats an xtra 5.7% chance the As is gone.

but you Don’t have a “full deck” anymore. If you based on a full deck (&unknown)… every card has a 1:52 or 1.9% chance of being any 1 card.

Futhermore, from a 30.6% to 36.2% chance the As has already been used, giving you a 0% chance, for that miracle 1 outter on the river. That means you have a 36% chance, your 1.2% chance, is 0%, versus, a 30% chance, your 1.3% chance, is 0%. You have a better chance of a better chance if no Burn cards, versus … a worse chance of a worse chance if you have Burn cards.

Oh gee, maybee thats why the Replay River is so deadly compared to live poker, missing Burn cards. ( a 6% greater chance , the card that will hurt you, is still out there. )

:thinking: Spock would say , “Facinating”. :unamused: … It can’t be that simple, can it ??

Anytime you have more cards to choose from, the greater is the chance (odds) of any card still being available, right ?? When someone says “I have a 50% chance of having a 1:52 chance” then what is that person’s “effective implied odds” ?? Can you answer me those two things please @feelmysins to start with… Next, take Omaha 9max full table, after the players’s cards are dealt, what are the Odds that any 1 card is still in the deck ??? (16 of 52 or 30%, right ???) or the inverse, there’s a 70% chance any 1 card is no longer in the deck, right ?

When you play D&D, and you need to make a combo roll… lets say 1d10 and you need a 1-2-3 , then a 1d20 and you need a 20. What are the odds you will be sucessfull ??? 3of10 and 1of20 or 30% & 5% , your effective implied odds for success are 1.5%… You cannot just ignore the 1st roll and say you have a 5% chance on the 1d20 roll. For the same reason, in poker, you cannot ignore that there might be a 20% chance ( lets say ) any 1 card is gone. That specifically is addressing, everyone’s cards are unknown.
Sassy

23

The bottom line is that there is and always will be burn cards. Are they on replay? I have no clue, maybe a staff member can answer this, as they should. As far as the odds or fairness of the game, yes it affects the probability of a card you are looking for that you may or may not get to fill your hand that may or may not win the pot. That being said, every player in the hand faces this same probability… whether there are or are not burn cards. So there is no unfairness or advantage to any particular player. It is similar to the RNG topic…At the end of the day, everyone is playing with RNG or no RNG and everyone is playing with burn cards or no burn cards ( which have much more of a purpose in a casino then online ) so it still comes down to everyone is playing with/on the same program ( with or without those ) and thats where skill takes over and becomes more important than whether Replay uses this or that. Most good players will play the same and win the same regardless. If Replay wants to insure trust in some of these players that want proof about the RNG and Burn Card situation, then thats up to them.

24

Don’t You figure the odds by the total number of cards not shown to the player? Period? Burn cards are the same as a player only holding 3 cards in My mind.

25

Burn cards do not affect odds the way some of you think they do.
Consider starting with a full deck, then burning the first 51 cards. Now consider the odds of that last card being a spade…yep, its still 13/52 or 1/4. Consider the odds of that last card being the queen of spades…yep its still 1/52.
The odds only change if the identity of of burn card is known and can therefore be eliminated from the possibilities, as Alan and a few others have pointed out.

26

Something to try??? If 4 players burned 30+ cards, then Dealt and played is there going to be Strong unbelievable hands almost continually because now the odds are so good?

27

Yes the Raw odds of a spade is 1:4 and 1:52 for a Q of spades… BUT thats Only if its the 1st card drawn. if 51 cards are already gone, then the effective implied odds drop to .481% for a spade, and .037% its the Q of spades.

28

Well, if you look at the comment by feelmysins, Nov 29 in this thread, just below, someone claiming to be the Poker Operations manager says there are no burn cards at online poker sites. Which is as I suspected, and makes perfect sense to me.

29

But only if you can see the 51 cards that have gone. The chance that the last card is the Qs = 1/(52-n) when n = number of cards you can see which are NOT the As; if you can’t see any of the cards that have gone (n=0), the chance that the last card is the Qs is 1/52.

Just as if you shuffle the deck and ask “what is the chance that the last card is the Qs”; it makes no difference if you then deal all 51 cards face down before exposing the last card, it is still 1/52.

1 Like
30

Sarah is a very good and successful player (better than me). Which shows that calculating the odds to the last decimal point is not the most important skill in poker. Close enough is enough.

31

Let’s imagine that the card you need is the ace of spades, and of the 40 remaining cards, it has not been seen yet. What is the chance that the next card seen - whether or not a burn card is in play - will be the ace of spades?

If there’s no burn card, it’s straightforward - 2.5%, or 1 in 40.

What if there is a burn card, though? Well, if the ace of spades was the burn card, a 1-in-40 chance, then it will never come up next. However, in the 39/40 times that the ace of spades was not the burn card, then you’ll have a 1-in-39 chance. Add up the probabilities as follows:
P(next seen card is the ace of spades) =
P(next seen card is As, given the burn card was As) * P(the burn card was As) +
P(next seen card is As, given the burn card was not As) * P(the burn card was not As)

P(next seen card is the ace of spades)
= (0/39) * (1/40) + (1/39) * (39/40)
= 0 + (1/40)
= 1/40 = 2.5%

As we can see from this example, the presence or absence of unknown burn cards does not change the odds in a truly randomized deck.

32

@WannabeCoder ,
Im currently writing a longer post and a formula myself.
To this end, if you assume 1 card CAN be drawn…
Doesn’t the odds go from 1.923% to 100% that the next
card will be the one you’re looking for ? ( mainly 'cause
if 51 cards are gone, and its still possible, that 52nd card
is the card you’re looking for. ( plz just yes or no )
Sassy

33

I think I understand what you’re asking, but I’m not entirely sure, so I apologize in advance if my response doesn’t match up with your question.

I’m interpreting your question to be, roughly, “Given a full deck of cards, what’s the chance of a certain card (the Ace of Spades, or As, in this example) being drawn second?”

The straightforward way of calculating this is that there are 52 cards in the deck, so there’s a 1/52 chance that you’ll draw As.

The more complicated way is to determine whether As was the first “burned” card. If it was, then there’s a 0% chance that you’ll draw it second. There is a 1/52 chance of this occurring. However, if it was not the first card, then there’s a 1/51 chance that you’ll draw As second. Since there’s a 51/52 chance that As wasn’t your first card, then the total chance of drawing As second is:
(0) * (1/52) + (51/52) * (1/51) = 0 + 1/52 = 1/52.

Does that make sense?

34

You totally miss’d my question… let me try again … only assuming you can still draw a specific card, so it has not already been drawn…
on card 1, all cards are available so its a basic 1:52 or 1.932% chance
on card 52, 1 card is available it must be the card so 1:1 or 100% chance

yes or no ?

35

assuming your on 9-max table, from the start every player has a 1/52 chance the As shows up. assuming there are burn cards and the As doesnt show up even after the river card is dealt… burn card pre flop, every player has a 1/51 chance, deal 18 cards, 1/33 chance now, deal flop, 1/30 chance now, burn card,1/29 chance now, deal turn, 1/28 chance now,burn card, 1/27 chance now, deal river, there is a 56% chance that the As was burnt or not dealt. If you dont see it on the board or in your hand after the river then u have to assume there is a 46% chance that it is in one of the other 8 players hands. if there are no burn cards then it is 1/52 pre-flop, 1/31 post flop, 1/30 post turn, so a 56% chance that its in the deck or 44% chance its in one of the other players hands at showdown…all respectively to the previous burn card odds, obviously if its on the board or if u know it was in someone elses hand (which u dont ) then a 0% chance its still in the deck, but u only see 7 cards to know for sure. enough with the odds already :slight_smile:

36

Amen !!!, give us burn cards so its just like a casino, and while your @ it, give us a more realistic shuffle… lolololol. I know why the river is “juiced” now, missing burn cards.

37

Yes, if you look at each card as you draw it to make sure it is not the card you’re looking for.

If you don’t look at each card you draw, then the chance that the last card is the one you’re looking for is 1/52.

3 Likes
38

Tacos,
Even in the post you quoted, you didn’t quote this :

that 1 post was my attempt in just ask’n 1 question outta like 4-5 I posed in earliuer posts… baby steps, but it was also there to lay the groundwork for a future post or @least get to a point the discussion was apples to apples, not apples to bananas to oranges.
Sassy

39

Ok so I am agreed with you.

I am still not clear how burn cards affect the probability of a particular card being drawn if you are not looking at the burn cards.

40

Opinion seems divided. Some say they do affect the odds, Others, like me, say they don’t as long as they remain unknown. “You pays your nickel and takes your chances,” as they used to say at the traveling carnival shows.

41

Lets take a simple example. If 10 of us play the lottery purchasing 1 ticket each and there are 12 combinations for the winning number but they tell us that in order to play they will be throwing 2 of them away because thats the lottery rule. They throw away a ticket then hand a ticket to 5 of the 10 players then throw away another ticket and give the other 5 people their tickets. Everyone still has a 1/12 chance in hitting the lotto whether the winning combo/ticket was 1 of the 2 thrown away, in 1 of the other 9 peoples hand , or in your hand. Before you look at your ticket to see if you won, you know the chances are that it could have been thrown away, 1 of the other 9 has it, or you are the winner. Now if they dont throw ( burn ) the 2 tickets away then all 12 combinations ( including the winning number ) are available but the 10 of us still only get our 1 ticket each therefore we all still have a 1/12 chance regardless of where those other 2 tickets went to… we know those 2 tickets are out of play but dont know which 2 but the odds of winning are the same.