I’m pleased with my decision to play this spot as shove/fold. With the bet size and stack depth, I am pretty sure it would be a mistake to call. The SPR will already be really low on the flop and we are out of position with a hand that hates a lot of boards.
The question is, what should my cutoff be for shoving here vs. folding? I think it is probably right around JJ. Players in this pool generally are extremely unbalanced. First, they only have value. There are a handful of players who will include some bluffs/“semi-bluffs” here but reading the snap-min-raise as top of range is generally reliable af.
Of course, I am also getting near the top of my range, so the question is who stands better range vs. range.
I think this is actually a spot where we need to get down to the nitty gritty and count combos. Let’s give villain JJ+/AK. I don’t even think they do this with AQs or TT very often. That’s 16 combos of AK where we are slightly ahead. 6 combos each of AA, KK, QQ so 18 combos where we are way behind.
OK, now I think it’s a clear fold. Thanks for talking that through with me 