Topics are not deleted in 24 hours, you will be able to revisit this topic whenever you wish John.
3 Likes
LOL! Sorry, that was a typo, I meant flush not flop. I am not sure if that was some kind of autocorrection, or I was just typing too fast!
From Annie Duke’s excellent book on poker:
“Let’s say you take 87s to the flop, and, miracle of miracles, you flop a flush. Well, you’ve just bucked a 118 to 1 shot, so lucky you. Now how can you extract 118 bets out of the other players in order to grant you full return on your miracle draw?”
“So you flop you flush less than 1% of the time, and over a third of those times, your risk getting outdrawn by someone holding a lone suited card higher than an 8.”
“And what if the board pairs, which will occur about 18% of the time on the turn, and if that doesn’t happen, will occur 24% of the time on the river?”
Flush draws:
" The odds of making a flush on the turn or the river are well-known… You are about 2:1 underdog, but that is only if you get to see both cards. "
“When you make that flush on the turn and bet it (which you have to do) and someone moves in on your sorry ass, how are you feeling now?Your opponent can see that a flush is possible, so now you get moved in on. And your flush is 8 high!”
First of all you have no return yet after a flopped flush. 2nd, Why do you have to extract 118 bets from other players to grant you a full return on an unmade take down of the pot after the flop? What is your full return? That can be made by any other hands as far as taking down some large pots, so why having to extract 118 bets? How is it a miracle draw when there are no draws pre-flop? You cant just assume the board pairs, If it does then you have to implement a good betting strategy from the time you flop the flush till the river ( if you dont fold by then depending on the board ) If im you then im betting at minimum the pot after your flopped flush depending on how many players are in the hand or folded pre-flop and depending on if this is rings or a tourney, if tourney then it depends on where you stand as far as your stack size and others at that point in the tourney. If its late in the tourney and blinds are super high then im most likely shoving after the flop if its heads up. When you say you made the flush on the turn i am assuming you mean your opponent/opponents filled a flush on the turn and you still flopped it. If im V and have As or Ks filling my flush on the turn then im check/raising you here no matter how many players are in the hand ( assuming the board did not pair ) if he or anyone else raises you all in 3 or more handed then im folding my 8 high depending on what type of read you have or know about that player, especially any reads on his potential bluffs if this is heads up. Anyone else shoving in this situation where its 3 handed or more im 100% fold. This is a good example where exploitation comes into play, especially when this is heads up. I am still trying to understand what your point of all this is.Its also deff easier to to dissect and analyze a hand in this scenario if the hand is posted and viewed.
1 Like
If you misplay this, you get 0 return as FloridaJetSki already said.
I’ve heard it said ppl bet for value, that assumes you want callers. The problem with “wanting” callers is you gotta dodge any draws known/unknown. So playing the hand from the flop correctly is KEY.
You said 7-8 (suited), you said you flopped the flush… but you didn’t even say what that flush was ( what other 3 cards are/were ). Not only do we not have the hand to watch, but we know nothing other than your 2 cards !!! Houston we have a problem.
- Are any players still in hand, normal flush players ?
- MTT, SnG, Ring ?
- How deep in a MTT/SnG are you.
- Stacks ( Table makeup )
- How many ppl paid to see the flop.
- How much do those people have.
- Ect ect ect ect
I’m sitting here 
Like Ally Sheedy in Short Circuit ( movie ), hearing the robot 
, Johnny5 say… “Yes Stephanie… Input, I need input.” MekonKing, can you see our dillema here in trying to askwer this ???
Let me take a shot anyway, shall we :
Lets also assume, it was a case of 2&1 , 2overs1under or 1over&2unders.
You still have basically 3 ways it will be…
- mostly under spades
- middle spades
- mostly over spades
Right off the BAT though, you are Vulnerable to any card that pairs the board, basically anyone who flopped Trips. By the river thats up to 13 cards that put you Drawing Dead, unless you have a str8flush redraw, and we don’t know that.
Next off we really do need to know if you have a str8flush redraw, and which end is it … because even a higher str8flush could also beat you. (worse case senario)
Knowing you came in with suited connectors, you prolly weren’t the preflop agressor, or were you ? Which means someone else prolly raised and could have Paint cards or any PP. How many ppl are still in is crucial, and who has posistion on whom… let alone how are stack sizes sitting for those flop see’rs ??? 
So you flopp’d the flush 
, do you have a Str8flush redraw/how ? Do You get to act 1st, uhhh… sounds like you’re gonna try and Trap here to get max value. That means You prolly will check around the flop and hope someone else bets and you can either re-raise or flatcall to keep ppl in.
You’re SOL really if you try for Max Value. Way too much here can hurt you.
If you don’t emidiately get it down to heads up going forward, then you’re take’n a big risk. Even if you get a miracle miracle flush flop… so, Q36 suited. You don’t have the SF redraw. ( thats the 3x.miracle ).
On the flop, get it down to heads up, on the turn c-bet even if the board pairs. If you get re-raised, fold cause he caught a boat. If you c-bet the turn and another suited falls, you’re pretty SOL even more… Do you see MekonKing where this is headed ???
If you flop that low of a flush, you better be darn sure the players left in the hand aren’t avid flush players and/or trappers. You have to dodge any pair’d board, any more suited, and anyone playing Paint suited.
This is why you have to play middle suited connectors more like AQ or JJ , carefully but confidently. You can’t let too many ppl call you to see that flop, so you can hope those ppl do have big cards, so you have some protection against certain types of flush flops.
I can keep going here but I think you get the point now MekonKing,
Input … we need input !!!
Sassy
Keep in mind too that most players on Replay will keep calling almost anything if they flopped a flush draw and are holding the A or K of same suit. Thats most likely why they are still in the hand,so you should shove pretty big on the turn if no same suit shows up and make them pay to chase and hope a spade doesnt hit the river because with that huge pot sitting there, hes either gonna bluff the heck out of you repping the nut flush or actually has it, but deff has your 8 beat.
1 Like
The sections in my post in quotes are just a few selections from Annie Duke’s book. The full text is more complex.
ok, gotcha … sry bout that.