I take a break how ever long I feel like. Sometimes that’s only a few minutes, sometimes it has been a few years. I’m not trying to wait out the bad spell… I’m trying to get back to where I look forward to playing, even when things don’t go well.
LOL… here’s an example of things not going well. Kudos to my opponent… he’d been unlucky against me in some other big hands in the past, and I think he played this well on each street.
Yes, I was on the bonus board and in the top 10 often, then nothing. Something is definitely up.
My play hasn’t changed either and I’m not reckless. I joined the VIP programme but then unjoined. No games until more people join I guess.
So what is it exactly you’re trying to imply ?
Not implying anything. Agreeing with your post.
Not really having an overall bad spell, really - but there is this one thing driving me nuts right now.
Many, many times over the last few weeks, going heads-up “all in” when, after our cards are flipped (pre-flop, post flop, doesn’t matter) - I’m an 80/20 favorite to win and somehow the other guy sucks it out and I lose.
It’s getting to the point where when we flip and I see myself as the heavy-odds favorite to win I scream “NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!” because I just KNOW what’s coming. Yes, people in the office look at me funny when it happens, but I digress.
It’s actually gotten kind of comical!
I’m not sure I can face a poker table ever again after yesterday. I can’t remember how many bad beats I had. I can remember three, but it might have been more.
Balance down from circa 1.17m to 1.15m. Profit margin down from 275k to 259k (from 30.1% to 29.1%).
Definitely time to find another hobby.
I hope you’re the boss 
On a four to a flush board on the river, it can be quite nice to know the odds that your opponent now has the nut flush, and this can be more easily calculated by getting the odds that they do not have the king of spades (it’s obviously often the ace that makes the nut flush here). You have two hole cards that you know are not the king of spades, and there are 5 community cards that are not Ks. That leaves 44/45 cards for the first of your opponents cards, and 43/44 for the second, and simply multiplying those together gives you the odds that he does not have Ks: 95%. So there is a roughly 5% chance one opponent will have the nut flush, if your opponent is equally likely to have every possible card.
With 2 opponents, it is 44/45 * 43/44 * 42/43 * 41/42: 91% they don’t have it
With 3 opponents: 86%
Now there is an obvious flaw with this: your opponents at the river are not equally likely to have every card, as aces and kings are far less likely to be folded pre-flop than other cards, and the action to the river has also made other card distributions more or less likely. In general, the likelihood that an opponent will have the nut flush on a 4 to a flush board is much higher than this. And one more thing… if the shove all in over your bet on the river… the odds that they have it just went up quite a bit more.
I feel your pain. I know you are more experienced than me. All I can say is that being new and humbled to the point of humiliation it was hard to go back into the tournaments and I stayed away for a short time(played ring games for only a little time investment-usually double my chips and got out(I felt satisfied)I was feeling so rough that I was sure a 7,2 off would have beat me at the tables.
With your reputation and knowledge, even a newbie like me would would see those were bad beats …do what you need to heal but when you love the game, you will have to get back on the horse and no reason not to hold your head high. Good luck at the tables,
Poker, what a game 
I am:
Ahaha, ahaha. Love that movie
Just too many bad beats for me now… In 2 days… JJ all in outdrawn by AK- Today I had AK suited all in against guess what ? JJ … JJ held up of course . MTT today running well and QQ ran into KK. … back in ring Q flush beaten by a K flush. Ace Flush beaten by an impossible looking Full house.Its just too much to bear, No more, I`m off .
You do know that JJ is a favourite to beat AK over 5 cards, right? If you have AK suited on the flop and are up against hole card JJ or just a pair of Jacks, your odds will be somewhat better if you have any of the components of a straight and/or flush draw in the mix.
There is a whole thread on the Jacks that JanCee started. Believe in the jacks, get to know the jacks, have coffee with the jacks, be friends with the jacks.
Just watch out for the evil one eyed Jack twins
My point is my shitty run. I have JJ v AK = lose, Villain has JJ v my AK= I still Lose -on top of those other bad beats . I may as well spend my money playing for real money instead of buying and then losing worthless chips. I expected playing for fun chips to be … like fun. I was wrong.
Play money tournaments are full of those who will overbet, slow roll, chase a straight or a flush and win.
Because the chips are free(freeroll) they have no fear of losing.
You can not measure yourself as a player in these games imo.
You do not need to buy chips at all, because RP will always comp you some more chips if you run out.
By starting at the lowest level games, you can build a bankroll and learn to manage it, and move up the ranks.
I have not yet made my first chip purchase on RP.
thanks for that, I have indeed started again from the bottom. Very frustrating at times though
Bad spells happen to everyone who plays long enough. Its not a Replay thing or a play-chip thing - its a poker thing. Variance is an absolute monster and could not care less about how nice a person you are or how well you play. In the short term, variance is king.
As an example, I was playing well all month and had a nice winrate going into yesterday. I had about 25K hands under my belt at 200nl and was up over 20 buy ins, net of rake. Then I hit the monster of all variance storms. I was up 2 buy ins yesterday when I simply ran into it. Top full house into flopped quads, flopped top 2 pair vs bottom set, 2 pair into an overpair and river forfeited my hand … My all-in equity was over 70% on the day and I lost most of those hands. I won 1 flip when my AKs beat QQ all-in preflop for about 120bb. I lost 2 all ins of over 125bb each with 94% equity going to the river (3-bet pots shoved turns) - ARGH!
In the span of 250 hands, I lost ~8 buy ins. I ran 45bb/100 below EV for the entire day (all-in adjusted if you can imagine). I don’t think I’ve ever seen a result that far below EV for 2000+ hands. I managed to make 1 buy in back over the last 100 hands to salvage some pride. It was a miserable experience. I ended the session feeling like I was the absolute worst, most unlucky player to ever live. It was the worst short term span I have had in memory. 1 day wiped out 1/3rd of my month’s work.
This morning, I reviewed some of my hands and aside from a few missteps, I played pretty well. The results stunk but the play was good. So, its put the results into the circular filing cabinet and move on. I’ll boot up the system and play my game as if nothing happened because nothing actually did. I did not get worse overnight. I am not the subject of divine wrath for some offense in a previous life. I just ran into a bad spell. If you can’t handle them, poker isn’t the game for you.
GL and enjoy the game. Do your best, learn from your mistakes and let go of the things you cannot control.