So, I think it’s interesting to forget the ranking of these players, pretend everyone at the tables is an anonymous new player, and the stacks are about 10000x less than they are, and try to do a “proper” hand analysis as we typically do here.
Preflop: CO raises, Button re-raises, blinds fold out, CO calls. A2o is a questionable hand to call a 3BB open with, but might be OK to 3-bet with. Is K8s a good hand to call a 3-bet with? Eh, I guess it could be if you’re heads-up and don’t think your opponent 3-bets with only their best hands. But most of the time, against a tight linear range, it’s definitely a fold. If this were a low-stakes ring table, I’d raise an eyebrow at the 3-bet, as you don’t see a lot of that happening below, say, 200/400. That would tip me off that the Button maybe knows a little bit more than the average fish at the table. And I like the bet sizing. 3BB open is pretty standard, the 10.5BB re-raise gives about 2:1 pot odds to call (7M into 14.5M) which is good because it doesn’t force CO to fold all but their best hands. I think if CO 4-bets that A2o should be folding though.
CO does 4! to 31M, making it another 20-some million to call. While 31BB seems like a lot, these players are stacked effectively 540BB deep, so it’s really not as big as it looks. If this were a 1/2 table, we’d be talking about a 3 chip open being raised to 11 chips, and re-raising to 31, from a player sitting on 1080 chips, who is bankrolled to around 8000 chips.
Flop misses both players, but K8s at least has some draws: backdoor flush, double gutshot straight. These are long-shot draws, though, and very unlikely to fill. But it’s only a 9-high flop, so it’s unlikely to have connected with the Button’s 3-bet range. This makes it perhaps reasonable to for the CO to C-bet and try to take the hand down, except for the fact that a lot of players should be 3-betting preflop with pocket pairs, in which case they don’t need to be connecting with the board to have a hand that can continue. CO leads out half pot, Button calls. Is Button’s call reasonable? Well, they don’t have anything but Ace high, but that might be good here, given how dry the flop is, and if not they might draw to a pair of Aces, which could be good. But with just a 2 kicker, if AA2 is the best you’re hoping for, maybe it’s better to just fold here. V did call your 3-bet and lead into you from out of position. Could they have something? Well, let’s hope not, and A-high is still ahead if you’re calling.
Turn is a 2, completing the rainbow, so there’s no flushes happening here. This card is basically a brick, although it does complete a straight for 5-3. Given the preflop action, 53 should be pretty unlikely. CO still doesn’t have anything, but since this 2 is a brick, and even if it did hit Button’s hand for a pair, it’s just bottom pair. So firing off a second barrel c-bet into the Turn could get them to fold. This time the sizing is about 2/3 pot, which should get more folds. Button did improve to bottom pair, though, and elects to call, a move which is perhaps reasonable, but only if they are correct that CO was c-betting with no made hand, and that they were previously ahead with A-high.
At a low stakes table, I’m not sure that calling with a pair of 2’s makes a lot of sense. Then again, you’ll see it a lot.
River is the highest ranked card so far, and CO shoves, overbetting the pot slightly. A2 is only winning the hand if they are catching a bluff here, which of course they are. The board is dry and disconnected, which increases the likelihood that a pair can have good showdown value here. But calling with bottom pair here? Well, you might get away with that against some fish playing too loose at 1/2, but if you play at 500k/1M, forget it! You’re just lighting your chips on fire! No one plays that poorly at high stakes.