# AA VS AA - Suit run out win bias on RP?

Please post your AA VS AA hands here that win or lose due to a run out of the same suited cards.

I’m interested in collecting data to see if there is a bias regarding the winning suit.

I’ll start - #1145301822

Clubs - 0
Diamonds - 0
Hearts - 0

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So, you’re saying it will run out something like this after 1000 hands of data:

Clubs - 250
Diamonds - 250
Hearts - 250

Joe you’d need so much more data than one can feasibly imagine users providing, for the aggregate to be statistically significant

You’re not even going to get 1,000 responses, and that would probably still entail a lot of variance.

I guess you could start running ANOVA tests before then, but I would bet a ham sandwich you won’t get any exciting p values

If the first 10 responses were all spades, it wouldn’t matter?

That trend couldn’t be exploited?

@Younguru I’ll take a ham sandwhich if you got one … hold the mustard

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For all the mathematicians out there, what are the odds of 10 in a row of the same suit?

The odds must be astronomical.

Probably not. I imagine the likelihood of a fair, properly shuffled deck dealing out 250/250/250/250 in a given run of 1,000 deals is actually pretty low.

I’m saying

1. you won’t get anywhere near 1,000 hands
And
2. if you did, it still might not be a big enough sample for any deviations from the expected distribution to be significant,
And
3. even if you got 10k hands, it might well look like, idk, 2525/2475/2453/2547

I have no idea if that last one I offered would be statistically significant or not, off the top of my head. But my point is to make a robust determination for something like this, you probably just need way more data than you’ll be able to gather. And just because the distribution is fair/even in the long run doesn’t mean the short run (to be clear, 1,000 hands is the short run) will be perfectly evenly distributed.

As they say in the investment ads, “past performance is not an indicator of future results”

You can’t exploit “the last 10 hands came spades.”

You can exploit “the next 10 hands will come spades.”

Good luck proving that, though

Well, we are poker players that have a lot of patience.

I’m sure this particular hand happened to mostly all active RP players on this site which is in the 1000’s.

If they saved the hand, it would be easy to find and post.

I’ll try and find the answer to my own question.

Hopefully, someone here can answer it!

RP has a tendency for things to happen that are astronomical.

Don’t see it in real life poker.

Thanks Luke for your input…continue on if you wish.

Humans have a poor intuitive grasp of very large or very small numbers. If I tell you the odds of spades hitting ten times in a row are 1 in 275,000 your brain just files it under “impossibly rare ■■■■ that will never happen.” But there is a big, even infinitely big, difference between 0 and .000000001

Somewhere in Replay today, someone will get aces twice in a row. A table will see 4 hearts come out 6 times in a row. Someone will get dealt JJ while their neighbor has QQ and the next guy has KK. All these events are highly unlikely.

But on 99.9999% of the other tables/hands dealt today, these things won’t happen. More “normal” things will happen instead.

Isolating the 1 table where hearts hit 6 times in a row tells you nothing about the future, or the distribution of hearts more broadly. It doesn’t mean hearts are “hot” at that table, either. It just means we found the outlier for that specific variable. There are thousands of extreme outliers every day. It’s a big corpus.

You don’t see it in live poker because

1. you don’t see enough hands

And

1. live shuffling is actually often insufficient to ensure true “randomness.” This is my favorite point to bring up: if anything, online is more true to what stats would lead us to expect. It’s live poker that has randomness issues!

Comprehending what we see and comprehending the infinite are two totally different challenges.

Just the thought of it makes one feel insignificant.

It’s healthier to put infinity aside and slowly back away from it all.

Even though we have plenty of patience being poker players.

Will we see someone post their AA VS AA hand tonight?

I would say the odds of it happening are very good.

All infinity aside, if it’s another spade hand, we may be onto something… lol

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Lol

Hey man if you wanna be superstitious I ain’t gonna stop ya <3
I mean, ok, I might try
but eventually I will give up

About 1 in 260,000. So it would be rare, but it’s actually slightly more likely than getting AA vs AA in the first place, let alone AA vs AA on a 4 flush board. That’s actually so rare that it’s effectively un-exploitable even if you could perfectly predict exactly when it was going to happen and with which suit.

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Thanks!

I finally figured it out at 1 in 262,144

Impressive how fast Younguru and lihiue were in the ballpark.

I really thought it would be a lot higher odds.

I think @lihiue’s point about how often the spot even comes up in the first place is the big takeaway here tho.

As players we often fret over the most visually arresting scenarios like losing AA vs. AA to a 4-flush runout. But not only are these configurations exceedingly rare, they also represent very few inflection points in the decision tree. What are ya gonna do, start folding AA depending on the suits?

Better spots to study by far include things like “what should my cbet % be on JT7 two-tone versus A83 rainbow?” We will face these pots far more often, and when we do, there’s a lot more room for our decisions to have a significant impact on our profitability.

Thinking about which AA wins more often across 10k hands might be interesting in a broad number theory sense, but it’s got diddly to do with our winrate.

There’s plenty of players on RP that stated that they should’ve folded AA’s.

That statement infinitely echoes throughout the site, bouncing off the padded walls.

As you know, my play is partly based on anything trending.

Yesterday, for the first time in a while, I entered two tournaments in the first position.

I had a 6 TH and a 2 ND.

That after not caring for a while where I entered and had plenty of bad luck including

losing that AA vs AA hand.

That collected data, it happens too often for it not to be a coincidence.

So, if you want to improve your chances of having a good game on RP, enter a tournament 1 ST.

If I can get ahead of the masterful mathematician Younguru yesterday, finishing ahead of him

at the final table, the results speak for themselves.

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Put this on the headstone of the grave of poker dreams