Honestly as this hand was being played out I had a big smile on my face, I love being put in such tough interesting spots. So I already analyze this hand thoroughly and I know the answer to this hand but would love to hear from you guys perspective.
so here it goes:
MTT, weak field lots of calling stations, 9 handed
200/100 ante 40, Hero stack: 4,590 / eff. stack 3,735
Hero in the SB with Ac3c
Folds to UTG+1 who limps, UTG+2 calls, MP calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB checks
POT: 1,560 FLOP: KcTdQc
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets 1,560, UTG+2 calls 1,560, MP pushes all in 3,535, CO folds, HERO SB ?
Is hero running cold or hot? Sometimes a gut feeling is worth it. Probably one or more straights on the flop. Very difficult call, even tougher fold. I would call more times than not. It’s for free (meaningless) chips. In a real tournament, depending on my gut, I would fold.
Difficult situation. If I was comfortable in the tournament, had more chips than the opponents and an eventual defeat in the hand didn’t interfere with my tournament, maybe I’d pay to see or even raise. If the opponents had a much bigger stack than mine and that meant my life in the tournament, maybe I would fold, but it’s difficult, I’ve been through similar situations, sometimes I fold, sometimes I go all in, sometimes I’m right to fold, other times I’m right go all the way, but in this case everything will depend on the river.
I would call here. To win any tournament you need to win one or two really big pots.
In this position you need either a club or a Jack to get the nut flush or straight. So you probably have 12 outs on each street. So 24 outs over two streets, which is more or less 50/50. In addition there is a small possibility that you could win the part with an ace pair, or an A3 or 33 runout.
There is now six and a half thousand chips in the pot, and you have to add 50% of that to call, so you have the right odds.
Possibly the BB or another player will also call. However either you hit the nut flush or straight or you don’t. With the nut flush you win, and with the straight there is some possibility of having to chop the pot.
Given the odds, I think it is worth going for it. Of course if an opponent ends up making a boat, you are sunk, and an opponent with Ace Jack already has the straight, which is certainly within their range.
Possibly the overbet on the flop is an indication that this opponent has top pair and wants to give any draw the worst odds possible, but that is conjecture.
love your analysis I agree with the winning mentality. Although wouldn’t you agree that going all in is the better play, since if we call the pot is going to be huge and we will be left with like 1.4k on the turn?
The classic pot committed situation, the money is going in regardless what the turn brings.
With 1400 chips left behind, it leaves a little bit open to see what card falls next, and how an opponent responds. If you miss on the turn, then you would need to recalculate the pot odds on the river if a third opponent bets on the turn.
It is certainly possible to come back and win a tournament from 1400 chips, so I would not say that by flat calling here you are stack committed.
In these games on replay poker, if you shove pre-flop with 1400 chips, it is quite likely that you will get two or even three callers, so if you win the pot, you can still double up, treble up, or even quadruple up.
We are clearly behind in the hand since we don’t have a made hand. The turn will fill us up or not. if we call and we miss, we are going to be left with 1.4k left. The pot is going to be huge on the turn, we will be getting the right price to call with the remainder of our stack. it will be a clear mistake if we fold regardless what our opponents do.