20 shove challenge

Players Helping Players
1

Looking for help.

Any high stakes player who doesn’t think twice about playing 4-2 offsuit for 14000 chips should be able to give me a hand.

Anybody who hates me whining has all the motivation they’ll ever need to help me out here.

Here’s what I need from you:

We sit down at a 2-seat No Limit ring table, 10/20 stakes, at the standard 2k buy-in.

Every hand we both go all-in preflop, and the loser re-buys.

We do this for 20 hands. We both go all-in every single hand, no ranges, no hand selection, just a blind all-in preflop every time.

I predict I will lose at least at a 70% rate, because that’s real life what happens when you pick any two cards against any two cards. You lose 70% of the time, when your username is puggywug. So says Replay Math. I have the hand data to prove it. I’m done with this site and I want to quit, this will be it for me.

If I do not win at least 6 of the 20 hands, I will be convinced the site configured to bad-beat me to the point where it’s unwinnable, pointless for me to play here anymore. I’ll walk away from the site and never log in again, and you’ll pocket at least 28000 in chips for your trouble. Which is nothing – doubly nothing since they’re worthless play chips.

This will take about 15 minutes of your time, 0 brain power, and you’re virtually guaranteed to profit, AND as a bonus I’ll never use this site or these forums ever again. In the end, we all win, assuming I win just 5 hands or fewer. I’ll get 20+ hours/week of my life back, and you all will never have to hear from me or see me again.

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2

I’m sincerely hoping that you won’t quit the site for good. You seem to be having a streak of bad luck. Most players have these streaks and sometimes it’s good to take a break. But I’m sure that your 70% hypothesis is wrong. If you want to test it, I’m happy to assist, but only with 100 hands, and I predict that you will win at least 31.

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3

OK, 100 hands then, at 10/20, 2k buy-in. If I win 30% of them, I won’t quit the site.

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4

Results:

@BlackWidow: 56 hands
@puggywug: 44 hands

I won more than 30 hands, so I don’t have to quit the site forever.

If we had played 20 hands, through the first 20 I won 6, so would have still not had to quit the site forever.

Our final stack sizes were 3950 - 92100 (I won the last hand). By W%, I’m not quite as unlucky as I might think I am, but even being in a -12 differential out of 100 hands can quickly ruin your bankroll.

Obviously when you lose more often than you win going all-in hand after hand, you tend to go bust and rebuy a bunch of times. I had to rebuy way more than BW did.

The table automatic re-buy didn’t work properly, and sometimes it would re-buy me at 1000, 2000, or 3000 chips, so I can’t exactly say every hand was equal, but in the end I lost 91050 chips in the experiment.

There were a couple of times when I hit win streaks and got up to around 30k, and there were at least two points (but I don’t think any more than that) where my stack size was higher that BW’s. But, once even-stacked, she always won and busted me back down again within 2-3 hands. I don’t think I ever busted her, so she took a 2k buy-in and walked away with 90100 in profit.

Nice work if you can get it.

Never, ever fold when I’m all-in against you, it’s +EV to call.

5

Just to add some stats: over 100 hands, assuming that every shove is a 50-50 coin flip and ignoring split pots,

  • the expected number of wins is 50,
  • the standard deviation (SD) of the number of wins is 5.

That is, 44 wins is just slightly out of the +/- 1 SD window and well within the interval of statistically probable outcomes. Moreover, the hypothesis that the win rate is 50% cannot even be rejected at the 10% significance level, i.e., the probability that the 50% hypothesis is falsely rejected based on 44 wins is higher than 10%.

As I said during the test, the final stack sizes really don’t mean much because the sequence of wins has large effect on those.

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6

I agree within 1 standard deviation is not anomalous. I will say that it feels about like usual for the way I tend to run in all-in preflop situations.

The main difference between this exercise and real play is that I don’t all-in any-two-cards like this, unless I’m down to 2-3BB. Normally I lose preflop shoves so often that I don’t generally initiate it.

I will call shovemonkeys with high broadways, and invariably miss the board, while the shovemonkey has two rags and hits a straight, two pair, or even just a single pair. The shovemonkey loves to shove with blinds at 15/30, hand after hand and after letting them have the blinds in 5-6 hands in a row, I’ll get dealt something you could consider calling with and feeling confident against someone who’s shoving their entire range, and their entire range is apparently 23o+. And yet, when I do, I still lose 2/3 of the hands.

Add to that the situations where I’m 70%+ to win, put someone all-in, they make a horrible call, and then the next card dealt flips the script. I’m talking hands where I have flopped top two pair, push on them, they make a bad call with a low pocket pair, then turn set and destroy me, or a hand like I had yesterday, Q9 making QQ on the flop for top pair, QT2, and V shoves A7 at me for no explicable reason whatsoever, and I call, then the board runs out backdoor broadway K-Q for the suck-out.

It’s demoralizing. All I can do is try to control the size of the pot, and all that means is I price draws to make +EV calls and beat me when the inevitabbly fill, or I get run over by aggressive players who can’t lose two hands in a row and can somehow get away with big over-pot betting, and lately low-ranked shovemonkeys who put their entire bankroll into 1 100k heads-up SNG, and think that NLHE is bingo, and anyone who wants to bluff on me all day long can do so, because I can go a week without hitting so much as a pair.

I do not think I understand variance, because it feels like variance owes me a 6 month can-do-no-wrong streak at this point.

7

Your obviously extremely TILTED!!!

I’m happy to help you out with a few conditions.

  1. we play a private table so we only have to lose the minimum at a 1/2 table.
  2. you accurately gather the data for analysis, not just for some kind of Hellmuth TILT release therapy.
  3. bingo is against the rules on RP, so I would need an OK from RP to participate in something that is warned against in the rules.
  4. we do this weekly/daily, many many times to gather more data.

I’m willing to help you out but a few things first. As a suggestion we play a private table. Private table are only 1/2 so less chips win/lose but same result. Also think about the buy in amount: MIN, STANDARD or MAX.

I get that your extremely TILTED and upset but I’m only willing to help test your theory IF your willing to put in the effort & gather as much meaningful data as possible. Anything else is just a waste of time & meaningless.

I hope you can also publish the data & put more thought into ways to test, gather data, limitations etc.

Overall I think its a great idea to be testing the randomness of RP but I do think this is extremely limited overall. If you could gather a significant amount of data I would be very interested in the results.

Good Luck
Dogs

8

@DogsOfWar bingo play is indeed against the rules, but my understanding of bingo play is when a player shoves every hand in order to disrupt the action at the table, to the detriment of the action at that table and the other players at the table.

There are times in tournaments where shoving very frequently is entirely appropriate, given the hands and the specific situation at a table, so Replay have to look at things and decide whether a reasonable strategy is to shove each hand.

In the case of what I was asking for: a willing player to consent to the challenge and run it at a 2-seat table where we cannot disrupt anyone else, as a test of the RNG’s fairness, not as a way to play the game, very clearly it shouldn’t count in anyone’s mind as bingo play.

Furthermore, if Replay wanted to ban a player for testing the site in this way, they’d be demonstrating their fear of the RNG being tested in a public manner, and in my opinion being banned from a site that feels like it has any motivation to do that is only doing the banned player a huge favor.

At any rate, I ran 99 hands with -BW- and ended up losing only 56 of them, which is within the expected variance for such an exercise. I said I’d quit the site if I didn’t win at least 30 hands, and through the first 20 hands it sure looked like that just could have been the outcome.

I didn’t quite catch up to 50-50, though, and ran poorly enough that it didn’t exactly convince me that I do not run measurably less lucky than chance predicts in these situations.

I got an answer, though, and it only cost me 100k in free chips. I was getting sick of answering the question 1 hand at a time in high pressure situations and having it cost me a more significant buy-in at a SNG each time, so really running a hundred hands in a row this way was very helpful.

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9

I’ll run 100 hands with you as long as you do the data collection. Message me if you see me logged in and I’m not in a tourney.

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10

I appreciate the offers. I’m satisfied for now, and will be sticking around, but if I decide I want to run another one of these, I’ll hit you or Dogs up.

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11

@puggywug

Everyone has a different definition of bingo but the problem is RP haven’t really provided one. Yes, obviously bingo is irritating & disruptive to most players. I’ve been called a bingo player on many occasions because players don’t like my aggressive style and think everyone should bet min only at every street. They obviously find my aggression disruptive clearly by their comments. Personally I think the use of the term “bingo” is asinine, but I definitely agree “bingo players” for lack of a better word diminish the fun at the table.

I’m well aware of what your asking and think its a great idea if your actually going to take it seriously & actually collect a decent amount of data. It would be worth testing against multiple opponents too. You can play these games very fast & possible even play 2 tables at a time to collect data faster - although that will mix the different tables hands up in hand history.

My opinion is your happy to get banned and I am not. I’m happy to help you test it though. Also my opinion is the site is almost certainly not rigged & your no more luck/unlucky that every other player, including myself.

In terms of the site being rigged though & testing you should think about & including a an overall profit/loss, for each run of 100 hands. Keep in mind being a winning player (ignoring rake) equates to more that just winning more hands than you lose.

Anyway based on your latest comment I guess this was just a Phil Hellmuth implosion again, and you just needed to cool your head. If you change your mind, as you said I’m happy to invest a little over 20 minutes to help you collect data each day.

1 Like