Gotta tell ya guy, back in the day I had to take a course in philosophy. It was a very generalized over view of philosophy through the ages. Didn’t have much trouble with it until it came to German philosophers. I could not figure out where they were coming from or going to. I was hoping for some innate genetic understanding since my dad was German but it wasn’t so.
Hatch
I’ll share a hand with y’all from my last MTT:
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/181904453
I won’t say more then I’ll give you the full story and the way I see it.
PS: if you have time, review the previous hands and you’ll see where I’m going with this (well I believe so ^^).
You bet high on the turn with 2 pair (the pair 2s is very low). A chance another will hit flush, a chance that the other has trips is also possible, river card 8 could also killed your 2 pair, or the river card could make a str8 for the other.
You made your bet hoping the other would fold or you wanted the call?
2 pair on the flop or turn is good, but not always an awesome hand, many river cards could made you lose this hand.
He can’t possibly have a pocket pair (except maybe ducks but I mean 3 combos I don’t even consider it) even if he’s passive/fishy. 88, JJ PF against the big blind you just raise (I didn’t put him on any slow play which given my agressive image would have been fairly awesome here).
On the history now.
The guy was very passive since I raised his limped SB two times and the two times he folded. Then I was fairly agressive with him and basically put him on the fishy spectrum because every 1/3 pot C-bet created instant fold. At some point he’d fight back.
So when I checked I was going to play fit or fold wishing to trap him.
Then I have a monster (against a fish in a short handed table I do believe any 2 pair is a monster on the flop and given the board texture it’s a monster even against a good player) and thought that if I bet hard he’d stay in because he’d think it’s a bluff maybe he caught a pair w/ a runner runner draw, maybe he’s Ax or Kx and can’t lay it down etc.
the turn hit Kd, perfect card for me, if he had a flush draw, a Kx he’ll definitely pay any bet so I shove and made a +EV play (around 45k i believe) he called and I was super happy (oh I’m super smart I thought).
The river hit, I lost my 79/21 well it happens. My whole point was showing that it’s not because the guy who’s hooked beats you on the river that the whole game is rigged. I’m totally fine with losing this kind of hands since it happens well 20% of the time which is a huge chunk of the time. I was just happy w/ my read/ play on this hand.
Out of context one might say:
Hey I was 69/31 PF (doesn’t really makes sense here but whatever), 92/8 on the flop, 79/21 on the turn and then lost to a lucky river => the game is rigged.
I don’t see it that way. Again my sample size is very limited but I just wanted to show and example of “it happens, it’s poker, move on”.
Ah, that way:))
I totally agree, my “monster hands” were killed many times on the turn or river, everything can happen in poker. Happy with getting AA, than a terrible flop for it, same with AK, or having 2 pair and than a higher pair on table, brrrrrr…or the only card you not want to see comes on the river. Part of poker.
But if good cards / hands always would win poker wouldn’t be so exciting!!!
Luck is a part of poker, and frustration is also a part of poker, but no hand gives (pre-flop) the garantee to win, and the river can change everything, with 7 cards much more possibilities than with 6 cards. Sometimes i call a high bet when i have nothing but have a lot of out, sometimes it cost me a lot of chips, but sometimes i got a big river fish.
Lol, played often board games at home, you had to throw 6 to continue the game, some always throw 6 on time and others not. The game board regularly was smashed through the room:)) And not speaking about monopoly or other card games.
Here we go again, yestoday i won with str8 flush and other person had four of kind:
today i lost with set of 3s as other polayer also had set , but of 6s, its all at same hand and we was only 6 players on table:
its annoying, EVERY DAY SAME STORIES.
I don’t really know about the Omaha Hi-Low hand except your starting hand was sorta ugly/impossible to read. Then biggest hands happen more often in Omaha so it’s weird but you slow played well your SF, not that crazy after all.
Second hand you both set mined. You both hit, well it happens. But when it went half-pot you 3 bet he 4 bet and then you shoved.
So what second best hand could he call you with? 2 pairs, maybe, flush draw probably not, OES draw no way, straight + OES draw sure but he’d be in front equity wise. he probably didn’t have JJ so it only really leaves 66 and 4s5s and your behind in both cases.
It also really depends on your and his image at this moment. Can he slow play, does he always half pot c-bet on this type of boards, does he fight back 3 bets or does he fold very often? Are you perceived as agressive, do you 3 bet often c bets etc?
Maybe this is the appropriate topic to share this? I was playing in two tournaments at once–I always put my seat where you see it here. BOTH GAMES delivered me the same hole cards, not just once but twice, although I only managed to capture the first set, as shown here:
What are the odds?!
The probability of being dealt the exact same 2 cards on 2 tables is 1 in 1,326. Your hand on the 1st table is a given so that is 1:1. The odds of being dealt any specific hand (one that matches the 1st) is 1:1,326. Therefore, you multiply 1:1 by 1:1,326 to come up with 1 in 1,326.
The probability of this happening on 2 consecutive hands would be 1 in 1,758,276. Here you are just multiplying the probabilities of 2 independent events, each occurring 1 time in 1,326 tries, happening twice in 2 tries. So 1:1,326 x 1:1,326.
From this, we can see that you are more than 1 in a million Jan 
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You are now my go-to, first call stats guy, Warlock!
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