# The Juicee River (how to catch a fish)

#1

OK let’s cut to the meat & potatoes of this matter, I constantly hear about “fish getting lucky”, so I have this broken down into 2 parts.
Part 1 is,- Why is it their fault?
Part 2 is, - Why are you complaining?

Recognize when you are beat on the river
For example, let’s suppose that you just limp in with A♠-K♥ from late position. There are 3 other players in the hand, including the blinds. The flop comes out A♥-5♠-6♣ of mixed suits, which is a very good flop for your hand. The 3 other players check to you, and you make a pot-sized bet. The small blind folds, but the other 2 players stay in. The turn comes with another 5♥. Both players check again, and you bet about ¾ the size of the pot. Only the big blind calls. The river comes with another 6♦, so now the board looks like: A♥-5♠-6♣-5♥-6♦. This time, your single opponent puts the rest of his stack in.
You should be dropping your hand here At this point, Why? I should be dropping your hand? Because You only have one pair of your own plus a community pair of 6s. Unfortunately, time and time again, online players will call in this situation.
Things change in Hold’ em with every street, so even if you flopped a big hand, by the river it can turn into nothing
I Realize that you are justified in wanting to call with this hand. You had a darn good one on the flop, and what kind of (bad word) would have called your bet on the flop with only a 5 or a 6? The answer is: online players! Many of your opponents will make a weak call, even when they’ve only flopped middle or bottom pair. They figure that if they hit the right turn, they can make two pair or a set and crush you.
Use your logic and your notes that you have them or make a note on them for play on the river
While that may happen sometimes, this logic is severely flawed because it’s just not going to happen often enough to warrant calling your sufficiently-sized bet. Plus, he’s out of position.
While experienced players can understand this deductive reasoning, you’ll have to start putting yourself in your clueless opponent’s shoes in order to beat him.
Take advantage of player notes within the online poker software. The next time you’re involved in a pot with a player that you’ve been keeping an eye on, try to use previous observations to help you. You might ask yourself questions such as: Has this player made a weak call with mediocre holdings? Does he like to draw? Can he give up middle pair? And Don’t be surprised for your opponent to show you any two cards, at any stakes game online.
Next is COUNTERFEIT HAND… - A counterfeit hand is useless
Another type of hand that gets a lot of otherwise good online players in trouble is the counterfeited hand. If you got a free play from the big blind with 7♠-2♥ offsuit and see a flop of 7♣-2♥-A♦, you’re usually in really good shape. You’ve hit two pair, and no one would put you on those cards.
Sometimes your hands will get counterfeited. Although it is not a pleasant feeling, that’s the nature of the game, and you need to realize when this happens, the value of your hand goes way down. However, if the turn comes with another A♥, you now have a very weak hand. You won’t get credit for having 3 pair, and many people place any Ace. That any Ace has now turned into three of a kind. Even if your opponent doesn’t have an Ace, you have to realize that any 7 with a better kicker than yours has you beat. While he may only have had one pair of 7s on the flop, your second pair of 2s is erased when that second A comes. At the turn, you have two pair: Aces and 7s with a 2 kicker. If your opponent has K-7, he has two pair also: Aces and 7s with a K kicker.
You’re beat and should realize that the value of your hand has gone way down.
Give up on the river when you know your hand is no good
How do you combat situations like this? First of all, you should try to prevent them before they happen. You should usually bet out when you have a strong hand, unless it is so strong that it’s unbeatable. When you bet, make it large enough so that your drawing opponents have to think twice before calling that bet.
Even the biggest hand pre flop can be reduced to mere bluff catchers by the river. Recognize when it is time to get out of dodge and make a good laydown
Also, know when to throw your hand away. The hand that I described at the beginning of this glares, “You’re beat!” If your opponent is just checking and calling and then suddenly makes a large bet, you should rethink how strong your hand actually is.
REMEMBER THERE IS ALOT OF NEW PLAYERS JOINING DAILY AND ALOT OF MISTAKES WILL BE MADE BY EVERYONE ONLINE FROM NEWEST TO THE MOST EXPERIANCED don’t let your mistake cost you… USE YOUR NOTES & PLAY SMART!

The fairness debate
#2

Did that fish just hit his lucky 3 outer against you again? Are you tired of all the river suck outs? How many times will these sites keep rewarding them for their bad play! These are just a few of the battle cries that you regularly hear from people who don’t quite get how this game works yet.
Poker is a game that regularly turns what appear to be rational human beings into complete lunatics.
This really isn’t a bad thing overall though. It is in fact direct evidence, exhibit A, as to why poker will always be so profitable. There is a certain segment of the population that just can’t handle this game. Yet they keep playing anyways. The very definition is insanity.
This doesn’t have to be you though! Even if all the river suck outs have you close to entering the loony bin, I am going to explain why they happen and how to deal with them better.
Poker is a Cruel Hearted ‘UM’ Lady. The real core of the problem lies in expecting poker to be “fair” or that after a certain while it “owes” you something. Much like everything else in life, this clearly just isn’t the case.
Poker is simply a game of mathematics and odds. It is a cold hard lady who does not care about you or your feelings.
Anyone who has ever been through a lengthy downswing will know this. I have been through several where I literally could not win a hand to save my life.
I am not going to lie, I was close to losing my mind on all of those occasions. And the biggest reason why was because I could not accept the fact that the bad beats, suck outs, and coolers really could keep continuing for weeks or even months on end.
I felt like after running bad for awhile that I had paid my dues. Ha Ha, funny joke poker gods! Now give me what I am owed. Give me the higher set or the aces over kings for once. Let me hit a flush draw once in awhile instead of it always being them.
But of course this simply isn’t the way that the game works. That fish who has been getting lucky against you all night will still hit his gut shot straight draw against you by the river exactly “16.4%” of the time over the long run.
To put it another way, this is roughly 1 out of every 6 times. Let’s be real, there is nothing really that amazing about an event happening 1 out of 6 times is there?
It is going to happen of course. And it can and will happen several times in a row on rare occasion. So why do so many people lose their minds when stuff like this occurs?
Our mistake is thinking about our recent history of bad luck against a particular player or even just our recent bad luck in general. And then thinking that somehow that history has some impact on the present hand.
Which of course it does not.
Poker does not owe you anything. Poker has no past and no future, only a present. Poker is cold hard statistics and odds and that is it.
SUCK OUTS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD THING!!! (Really)
Obviously nobody likes to lose a pot when they had the best hand or the best odds to win. But suck outs are an inevitable part of this game and they are actually a good sign as well. Mental game expert Jared Tendler I think he put it best: “They’re unavoidable [suck outs/bad beats] and frankly they’re evidence of quality play. If you’re not taking bad beats, it means you’re not playing well enough to be a favorite.”
And I would actually take this one step further by pointing out that frequent suck outs are also evidence that you are playing in good games.
If you are not playing in soft games against bad players, there is simply no way that you are going to win big in this game.
When you are on the receiving end of lots of bad beats and suck outs, then this is the surest sign of all that you are playing against the right kind of opponents.
Change the Language of the Game
The very language that we use in this game is often at the heart of why we have so much trouble accepting losses when we had the best hand as well.
Just think about terms like:
•Suck out
•Setup
•Bad Beat
All of these phrases are pejorative in meaning. They make it sound as if somebody has personally harmed us or if the game itself is conspiring against us to fail.
And so therefore these phrases tend to just reinforce the negative ways of thinking that we all have when things go bad for a really long time at the poker tables.
They also aren’t an accurate depiction of reality. Nobody “sucked out” on you. They just hit their mathematical equity in the hand.
You were not “set up” to fail when you ran your trips into a full house. Actually this is just a common occurrence in poker. Situations like this are often the very reason why we play big pots and everyone will get their fair share of being on the winning and losing side in the long run.
And finally, nobody “bad beat” you. Seriously, who came up with these bizarre terms in the first place?
The other person simply had a certain amount of outs (cards that would allow them to win the hand) and this translates into a mathematical percentage. Their mathematical percentage to win happened to come through in this particular instance.
Keeping Your Sanity When You Seem to Run Bad Forever
Now of course no matter how many exercises in logic, mathematical analysis or semantics you will not change the fact that poker is an absolutely brutal game sometimes. When the “rumors” that Tom “durrrr” Dwan had lost a 20 million dollar pot in 2004 Macau by running middle set into top set and is now teetering on the brink of busto. He made a rebound. He is a great player and someone who inspired a lot of people over the years. Poker really has no heart and no soul. And what’s even worse, nobody else cares about your results either. Nobody wants to hear your bad beat stories and nobody is going to hold your hand when you hit that soul crushing downswing. This is a seriously cutthroat business and one of the most individual (selfish perhaps even) pursuits you can be involved in.
I personally see this as a positive though. I have never really been a fan of team sports or working for somebody else. I would much rather get all the glory for my wins and take all of the blame for my losses.
So I see poker more as a personal challenge than anything else. And since poker is a game played against other people I see it as an opportunity to make better decisions and react better to adversity than everybody else.
As the mental game expert Tommy Angelo famously stated, this "Reciprocality " is indeed the cause of all profit in poker. “In the world of Reciprocality, it’s not what you do that matters most, and it’s not what they do. It’s both. Reciprocality is any difference between you and your opponents that affects your bottom line. Reciprocality says that when you and your opponents would do the same thing in a given situation, no money moves, and when you do something different, it does.”

I hope you catch your limit & don’t let odds be the thing makes you angry today… Have fun

#3

Mistake #1: Limping in AK allowed too many players in the hand
Mistake #2: Pot bet on flop allowed player with small pair, straight or flush possible to fish

#4

Yes, but I see it happen a lot…

#5

Good stuff Juicee

#6

I think this part got lost in my super long post, so I want to post it separate, and will make less lengthy post in the future
Obviously nobody likes to lose a pot when they had the best hand or the best odds to win. But suck outs are an inevitable part of this game and they are actually a good sign as well. Mental game expert Jared Tendler I think he put it best: “They’re unavoidable [suck outs/bad beats] and frankly they’re evidence of quality play. If you’re not taking bad beats, it means you’re not playing well enough to be a favorite.”
And I would actually take this one step further by pointing out that frequent suck outs are also evidence that you are playing in good games.
If you are not playing in soft games against bad players, there is simply no way that you are going to win big in this game.
When you are on the receiving end of lots of bad beats and suck outs, then this is the surest sign of all that you are playing against the right kind of opponents.
Change the Language of the Game
The very language that we use in this game is often at the heart of why we have so much trouble accepting losses when we had the best hand as well.
Just think about terms like:
•Suck out
•Setup
•Bad Beat
All of these phrases are pejorative in meaning. They make it sound as if somebody has personally harmed us or if the game itself is conspiring against us to fail.
And so therefore these phrases tend to just reinforce the negative ways of thinking that we all have when things go bad for a really long time at the poker tables.
They also aren’t an accurate depiction of reality. Nobody “sucked out” on you. They just hit their mathematical equity in the hand.
You were not “set up” to fail when you ran your trips into a full house. Actually this is just a common occurrence in poker. Situations like this are often the very reason why we play big pots and everyone will get their fair share of being on the winning and losing side in the long run.
And finally, nobody “bad beat” you. Seriously, who came up with these bizarre terms in the first place?
The other person simply had a certain amount of outs (cards that would allow them to win the hand) and this translates into a mathematical percentage. Their mathematical percentage to win happened to come through in this particular instance.

#7

Consider the player that “slowplays”, thus “setting up”, the other player(s) into a “false sense of security”, that thier hand is the best hand… only to bet big, and lose thier stack. Absolutely they were set-up to fail ( but not by Replay )… that was the whole point, because had the person bet out thier full house, trips prolly doesn’t pay them off…

It was brought about, by I’m gonna guess a smart casino owner, who saw advertizing value in offering a “Bad Beat Jackpot”. You don’t get “bad beat’d” , its to say “its a bad beat” when such power hands such as quads get beat. It doesn’t matter, how this occurs, just that it does occur. ( basically it does NOT have to be a suckout, to be a bad beat ) This Jackpot wasn’t for smaller hands that get beat, only top premium hands.

You could replace “hit” with “suck’d out on” … in the sentence “They just hit their mathematical equity in the hand.” It specifically reffers to any hand, where all players have stopp’d betting ( due to most or all being all-in ), and the person in the lead ( who got thier chips in with the current best hand ) gets “suck’d out on” by losing on a later street, by a inferior hand. Popular culture has transposed this, to any hand where the favorite gets beat on a later street.

@JuiceeLoot , I would agree that if these are occuring, you’re prolly doing something right to get into these situations. I tend to force myself to remember “good beats” or times when I “suck’d out”, and of course “good river wins”… When players only focus on(remember) thier losing hands, they forget all those times that pendulum swung in thier favor.

So remember “good beats”, “river saves”, and “the reverse set-up”.
Sassy

#8

got it thanks sassy