The fairness debate

SunPowerGuru
That’s just the way rebuy tournies run. It’s actually a sound strategy.

So what you are saying, it was designed with “bingo” in mind ? or was this strategy thought of later ?

Obviously it may seem you have never played manila, or you would be endorsing it to.
I have suggested it, but no reply.

I don’t know. There are 2 basic strategies people play in those, super aggressive or super tight. The format doesn’t leave much middle ground.

I have never played Manila. I’m not against the idea. If you think my endorsement means anything, then I endorse the idea. They did a poll awhile back, and said they will be adding 7 stud next.

And yes, it’s a shame that they don’t even bother to acknowledge most suggestions.

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I probably should have counted the quads. Since it only happened once, it wouldn’t make much of a difference though.

What I did was calculate the chance of NOT making a set, then subtracted it from 100% to get the chance of making the set, so…

100% - ((48/50) X (47/49) X (46/48) X 100) = 11.755%

I probably should have rounded this to 11.76%.

If we count the quads, we get… (121 / 1023) X 100 = 11.83% for a difference of 0.07%.

As far as I’m concerned, this is well within the margin of error for this sample size.

How did you get the 11.51%? You obviously know more about statistics than I do, I’m just curious.

Homeboy, that relates to that particular dealt hand. In that hand there are 2 kings free but only 1 ace. Come on man, get with the program.

Thought process is similar. To make a set, but not quads, you have to multiply (2/50 unseen cards that will make a set)x(48/49 unseen cards that won’t make quads)x(47/48 unseen cards that won’t make quads)x3. This simplifies to (3x47)/(25x49), and is approximately 11.51%.

The factor of 3 comes from 3[choose]2, or 3!/((3-1)!x1!), since the card that makes the set can be any one of the three cards on the flop. 3x2x1/((2x1)x1) = 3.

You can get the same result by subtracting the probability of getting quads from the 11.76% probability that you will make quads or a set. I’ll leave that exercise to the reader, “Dr. Sun.” :smile:

No comment

Hand 482180704

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had worse one and wished had saved it, but long story short, was 2 quads and runner runner for royal flush.

I just can’t believe he went all in with absolutely nothing and ended up with a royal flush. What was he thinking? AAK on board and he had Q10, what was he hoping for? A straight? He’s a regular Royal player and he knows a straight is a very weak hand. A royal flush? There was only 1 heart on board. So what on earth was he thinking? I don’t know. But those miracles keep happening for some reason.

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I know Maya. it just nothing makes sense at all. me I would had folded the straight and another reason cause I never hit runner runners. had a had few days ago. was me in BB and guy in SB, board showed 2 aces and I had two pairs and was short stacked, so I jammed he called with nothing except for one diamond, he hits running diamonds for a flush. how can you call with nothing when there are two aces on board? its just disgusting.

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When players call with such hands, especially when they’re good players, it just makes you wonder sometimes. Do they know something I don’t? Do they recognize a certain pattern that I’m unaware of? He’s a good player, and his hand is the weakest, why would he do something like that? And look, he won lol. It’s either a psychic ability or a recognizable pattern. He’s neither dumb nor a bad player. Must be something else.

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and if it is a recognizable pattern, and lot players know the pattern, then I think replay poker need to change program or rng whatever want to call it. there are patterns and I notice them at times and if I can recognize patterns, then someone who is a lot smarter than me can definitely figure it out.

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Absolutely. If you can figure out what the "variance"™ flavor of the day (or week) is, you can play more of that type of hand. (I’ve documented a lot of this sort of thing with friends or in this thread.)

There was a week within the last couple months where my dead cards were flopping straights left and right. So, I started limping even my worst 3-gap offsuit trash to capitalize. It worked out pretty well.

We’ve all seen the “any two suited” flush trolls and wonder why they do it. Then the flop comes monotone every 8 to 12 hands instead of the normal 18-ish and you begin to understand. Or you get a rainbow flop, then runner-runner of their suit, so they chase it anyway when facing huge bets like the patient little lemmings they are.

You end up having to bet for value rather than folds with these people… and hope they don’t hit on the river. And if you check, they will min-bet every street until they land their hand on the river and shove. I’ve dubbed this the Sapper Technique and it seems to be ubiquitous around here…

And sure, if you take a large sample size, the numbers will come into balance as suggested and expected. However, there are strange localized events that do occur to an extreme extent – so extreme that they are in fact predictable for a short time. Trip flops, two pair boards, frequent straight flush draws, Hold’em boards becoming Royal boards, community cards making straights & flushes & full houses & quads on their own, XYX flops becoming XYXZX at the river, etc.

If I can see things like this, I’m sure others can as well. And when you see people making these impossible calls and then hitting, it makes you wonder: idiot or idiot savant?

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I could tell you, but then I would have to sent people over to your house to make sure you can’t tell anyone else. MAWAAHAAHAAHAA ( Pinky to the corner of my mouth with all other fingers below it)

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no words
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/482735586

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https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/482575842

Check this out it always happens to me just like this, He stays with a pair of queens in Omaha HI/Lo and Hits another Q and a 6 paired up in his hand too. This happens way to often to me, I can’t seem to get above my bank no matter how well or bad i play. It’s becoming a not very fun site to play at and I am figuring going back to Pokerstars at least there are more tables and people which give a better chance to find a fair table. this is just one hand i should post all of them. What the funny part is these same players always beat me no matter how good my hand it, playing soft or hard it doesn’t matter I lose they always either hit on river or something magical happens to just show up. I have got 1.6 million in chips and it’s been that way for a very long time, I can’t get more and I am sure it i went on a giving my chips away I could lose them because no matter what hand i get into I lose unless the Pot is PEANUTS.

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You bet 10% pot into four players on a flop that gave you middle set in Hi-Lo Omaha. You’re surprised that someone called and caught up to you? That’s not bad luck; it’s unrealistic expectation. If you want to get folds, you need to bet sizes that will encourage other players to fold.

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I don’t see why you entered that pot at all. You didn’t have any realistic expectation of winning either end, let alone both.

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I concur with WannabeCoder. When that second board Q turned, you should’ve pulled in your horns. If an opponent calls, he HAS to have a third (or fourth!) Q to make the call because there is no possible low for him to be chasing and no other high chance justifies his call.You min bet your flopped trips; if you had done it again, at least you could get away if he raised. That flop bet was the key. He might’ve folded to a big bet, but once he sees the top trips, you wouldn’t get him out with a gun.

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you cannot determine “normal card distribution” based on the hands one player see…at least not without some recording over a period of time and given the number of hands dealt per hour on here you would need a record of 100,000 hands probably

Somebody who knows more statistics may correct me on the 100,000 hands…but your observations are only anecdotal

I was dealt 4 pocket pairs in a row today: 5s, 5s, 7s, then Jacks.
(1/16)^4 = 1 in 65536 probability.
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/483497781
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/483497954 (folded 5s before showdown, sorry)
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/483498119
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/483498263

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