Equity is the likelihood of winning a particular hand.
In the short run, variance will cause you to either over-realize or under-realize your equity. You might hit a draw, your opponent could hit a two-outer on the river… These things happen, but over time luck generally evens itself out.
In the long run, a winning poker strategy is one that forces opponents to either over-commit their equity (put more chips in the pot than their chance of winning it), or fold it off. This is clearest in river decisions, when the cards are all on the table. Bluffs are an attempt to get an opponent to fold off equity, and value bets induce opponents to over-commit by calling you off.
It applies to earlier streets as well. If you have strong draws after a flop, you may want to bet. This will build a pot that you can bet for value if your draw comes in, bluff at if it doesn’t… and if you induce your opponent to fold, then you scoop the pot right there. Good preflop play works this way as well - if I know other players are going to call huge preflop bets with any two cards, I’ll fold most of my hands, and bet big with my best hands, getting those players to over-commit their equity when they call. In the other hand, if people are over-folding to relatively small open sizes, I’ll widen my starting range to recognize that fold equity.
One final note on this front - passive play generally doesn’t succeed in getting opponents to over-commit or fold off their equity. Limping aces preflop will let the blinds see free/cheap cards, diluting your equity. The exception is if you play passively in an attempt to induce players behind to bet into you, this over-committing their own equity. However, what I’ve seen at the lower stakes is that passive play is generally not part of this well-reasoned, balanced strategy, but a desire to see more cards and hope to survive to showdown.
This is where you can get into a leveling war if you are facing a thinking opponent. If I think that you think that I think that this flop hit your range and you will therefore bluff a lot, my counterstrategy can just be to call you down with my middling strength made hands. But then if you know that I think this then you can bluff a bit less and bet for value more. But then if I think that you know that I know this I can call a bit less… and so on. This all makes my head spin trying to think more than about three levels deep.
If we go through enough rounds of this leveling war then we would eventually end up in a equilibrium point where both of us are betting and calling at a frequency where if either of us deviates from the equilibrium we start to lose money. The range of hands corresponding to this equilibrium point is what I mean by a balanced range.
Without actually going through this leveling war, we can try to work out what that balanced range will look like. The precise proportions needed between bluffs and value can be estimated mathematically and depend on the current pot size, stack size and the amount that you bet. For a typical heads up flop situation in a raised pot, if we are reasonably deep stacked, we need about a 2:1 ratio between bluffs and value bets.
If we look at a particular flop we might decide that between all of our value hands we have 30 value combos (e.g. all of our sets, 2 pair, top pair top kicker type hands). Then we need to pick 60 more combos to bluff to get that 60:30 or 2:1 ratio. Our total range might be 150 combos. So we need to pick our best bluff candidates from that range. By looking at the hand that we hold and choosing the best semibluffs, we are essentially using the hand that we happen to hold as a way to randomize our bluffs - if we happen to hold a semibluff for this board then we bet it.
One thing that surprised me when learning these concepts was that some of the bluffing hands that had to go into these ranges held a lot less equity than I was used to for a semibluff. For example, I was used to semibluffing with high equity draws like an open ended straight draw or a good flush draw. I found that on the flop it can be correct to bluff with a hand like 8c7c on a flop of Ac9s4h where we only have backdoor draws and our actual equity is quite slim.
Biggest mistake # 46: Confusing the BB with an ante - ok people, tossing 1 BB into the pot does not entitle you to see a flop. Raising is not rude, nor is it “bingo”. If I never hear another whiner complain about open raising preflop, it will be too soon. I actually think there is a large portion of the players here who wouldn’t like poker if they ever played it.
This is exactly where I want to bluff, especially vs solid players in HU pots. How else can you get close to enough bluffs on each street, especially the river? River bluffs are zero-equity plays.
On earlier streets you may have some equity but not much. Say I open a pot 6-max UTG with 7/6s and get called by the BB. Flop is AJ2 rainbow and now I have no hand and no draws, even backdoor. BB checks - what am I supposed to do if I don’t have low/zero-equity bluffs? Give up, check back and let a probe bet on the turn take it or fire 1/3rd pot? I have the range and nut advantage on this flop and would be c-betting almost all of my range.
Will bring this over to the bluffing thread and maybe think about a “trouble hands” thread for suited connectors, Axs and small pocket pairs? IMO, if you are not prepared to bluff with high enough frequency on hands that have little or no equity, you can’t play them profitably in any reasonably strong game. In a calling-station game where every pot is multiway, then you need to dial the bluffs way down. Everything is dependent on the game you are in, including what hands you can play profitably from each position.
You bring up some good points (and bluffing the river is definitely different from deciding to take a bluff line on the flop because river bluffs will be zero equity bluffs).
In terms of cbetting and barreling, I think it is less clear. In the example you gave, I probably do fire 67s on that flop for the reasons you gave, simply because it is the very bottom of my range and has no showdown value. Exploitatively, many players overfold when they miss, even for play chips, so of course we should be firing hands that are never ahead. But, I think there is an argument to be made for giving up when you have total air, in certain spots against good opponents. The fact that you have no draw and no blockers makes it more likely that your opponent has something good, and if you fire every time you miss you will be bluffing too often against a balanced opponent. I would much rather bluff with a backdoor flush draw or a gutshot than a hand that has 0 equity versus my opponent’s calling range. On a AhJd2s board, I think that even if you are overcbetting exploitatively, you should cbet with 67 of spades, hearts, and diamonds, and just give up with 67 of clubs. That way you are not cbetting too wide and you have some backdoor equity. That’s not an exact rule, just an idea of how I think (and I believe somebody like Doug Polk would think), you can add balance and GTO concepts to your game while still being exploitative.
My biggest leak on Replay has been barreling in too many spots when I know my opponent can only have a medium strength hand and then getting called down by that exact hand that I expected to fold out with my nut/range advantage. If I choose to fire/barrel only in spots where I have draws, at least I can win a big pot when I hit. So, there is value to exploiting opponents who overfold, but it is still advisable to choose bluffs wisely and focus on semibluffs or blockers rather than straight air.
After sitting with idiotplayer and discussing their strategy, they gave me the same impression. I noticed how often they showed up with a hand that looked ugly on the flop but had hit a backdoor or a gutshot by the river, and they told me that they often just give up with air, especially against stations, and fire when they have some equity or blockers.
I like the 1/3rd pot cbet with your whole range as an exploitative move since this is a flop where many opponents will tend not to defend enough. I think this can also be a good move on other very dry boards like say KK7 rainbow.
I also think it is fine to bet bigger on AJ2 rainbow, and just check-fold your zero equity hands. You still have other hands in your range with a little bit of equity to bluff with, like say T9s/98s with a backdoor flush draw or KQ.
@JoeDirk and @love2eattacos - I used the 7/6s on AJ2 rainbow flop as an example, along with the 33% c-bet size. Everyone will have different opening ranges and be facing different opponents. The example hand wasn’t meant to apply across the board to all games and situations. It also reflects my personal preferences when playing short handed cash in that I tend to open wider with smaller sizes and proceed through hands in that fashion. The smaller c-bet size has been effective for me in that it accommodates the higher bluffing frequencies that come with wider opening ranges. It also allows me to build more pots with value. 33% is an interesting size with a lot of practical applications. Try it when you are betting 1-pair hands rather than firing only 2 streets and pot controlling.
In general, for theoretically advanced games, the ratio of bluffs to value is highest preflop and lowest on the river. Regardless of bet sizes, in order to have a robust enough range a player cannot only open value hands without exposing himself to being massively exploited. I don’t think this concept has much practical use here.
When you can deviate so far from optimal and not worry about being exploited, this seems to be the most profitable strategy. This approach removes almost all low/zero equity bluffs on earlier streets and only keeps some missed draws and purely situational bluffs on the river. Its all value.
Biggest Mistake #53: Shoving the nuts - but is it really a mistake when you get calls anyway? I’ve seen people flop the nut flush and donk-shove or shove over another bet. Why would people try to force folds by shoving when they have the absolute nuts? Why are people calling?
Here’s one from earlier where player flops top full house and donk-shoves into the other players. Lets forget about the preflop stuff and how you get there with a pair of 8’s for now. Can someone explain what’s going on when people do this? https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/443179608
When you flop the stone cold nuts, don’t you think its a better play to try and get some value for it? You don’t flop it very often so when you do, it makes sense to try and profit from it.
The hand listed appears to be one of the 1st 3-4 hands. A shove here makes sense for a couple reasons. 1st off, you prolly get no callers and you take an early table chip-lead. 2nd , if you do get a caller its prolly the low straight, a draw to a bigger straight, or trips/2pr that hopes to hit the boat… since the board is a rainbow on the flop. You can’t have anyone drawing out, so making it as cost prohibitive as possible to try… makes sence… 3rd , your bonus is anyone try’n and not hitting thier draw is gone, prolly busted out or down to less than 1 BB and you have dbbl’d or trppl’d up in the process. 4th , if KOs are tracked, then this is perfect play, hunting the easy KO for anyone who trys and miss’s.
Either way you’re the new chip leader at this table, otherwise you’re gone and you move on to the next MTT/SnG. There are enuff ppl that will chase draws, its worth it to try and bust 1 of them out.
Sure you can med bet that hand, like say 3-600ish… but be rdy when those scare cards comeout, are you willing to keep betting out to rep the monster or call a big raise against you ??? Alot of players, run away kick’n & scream’n … I understand , the holy grail is a chaser that never hits, but always calls your med bets. Almost better @ that point if that’s your goal, slo play or bet weak to get raised & let them keep betting out… and blast out on the river… ( You better hope by then noone hits anything, you are vulnerable )
I thought getting your chips in the pot, with the best ( current ) hand is kinda the object. Over long time periods you “should” be winning money doing this.
Sassy
Biggest Mistake #61: Running bad bluffs - like telling people "When I’m not here practicing, I’m playing in my local casino 5/10 game. This is especially funny from players with stats of VPIP:80 PFR:3 - LOL, no you aren’t.
When you have flopped the absolute nuts on a perfectly un-scary board? On that particular hand, what cards are going to back me off? OK, maybe you get an A that suits up with the board to bring in a flush draw or maybe the board pairs and now you have to start thinking about full houses but that’s about it. I want 1 or 2 people calling me with their 1-pair hands and gutshot draws and backdoor draws. That’s basically free money. A shove is going to get called by sets and maybe 2-pair, both of which have redraws against my hand.
But you need 2 to Tango - getting your chips in the middle with a monster hand but no callers is a waste of an opportunity, IMO anyway.
I 110% agree wholeheartedly, but shoving does 2 things that early.
It tells ppl you’re willing to shove with a good hand (table presence)… and
by having ppl fold there, you instantly have OPM & are table chipleader.
I shove the flop and take my chances, and hope 1 person calls me and
doesn’t improve, thus busts out.
Sassy
You put yourself into posistion to have to call a big bet
and risk your Bankroll. Tennis, a couple hands later,
lost the rest and was gone …
Why work so hard building up to 200k, then risk it all
on 1 hand. Better there to leave, buyin for say iono
50k or even 100k on another table with your 200k…
Sassy
I can get that I guess. Maybe its something I could do in a freeroll or if I have a read on a player or two who would call with any pair or any draw? I’ll have to give it some thought because maybe I’m losing value by not taking advantage of people with no working fold button.
BTW, since you seem to be so in tune with the promotions and leaderboards, why aren’t you playing the SnG leagues? They would seem to be right up your alley and the bonuses are pretty significant. I’m going to finish this last weekly board and then probably stop. While its a great way to increase my bankroll, I’m not finding it enjoyable anymore. I want to bounce a round a little and find some fun games after this.
OK, I think I see a pattern emerging here about the virtues of shoving: you donk-shoved 6.5x pot in this hand and were called by 1 pair, less than top kicker. Now maybe he knew you’d shove your open ended draw and he had some draws in addition to his top pair but this was just weird IMO, from both sides. If you don’t mind saying, what was the thought behind shoving there? Maybe it would help me understand where you’re coming from better?
It looks like it is early in a tournament when people tend to play wildly to try to get an early double up, and the guy who hit the boat was trusting on at least one player calling, probably the player who put in the massive preflop raise who might have aces or kings. As it happens, the player who had the flush draw decided to go all in her rather than hang on with a small stack after calling the huge preflop raise. God knows why he called preflop, but it just shows that he was already in reckless mode.
Anyway in these tournaments you only have a few seconds to make a decision, so I would not read too much into it. Yes, personally, I would have led out with a smallish bet hoping to keep both opponents in the pot, and hoped that the flush draw was successful, but going all-in might actually be more effective early in multitable tournaments. In the later stages of a tournament with huge blinds and massive pots, one would be unlikely to call a 5x BB preflop raise in a multiway pot without a strong starting hand, because if your hand was not a high pair preflop and you missed the flop, it would probably be suicidal to stay in the pot on a draw against a 5x raiser and another caller.