Dr. Sun's Poker Lab


apparently many derive pleasure from losing around here…


Getting your opponents to fold absolutely reduces variance. You can’t win a pot if you fold. There are never bad beats. You may not get full value if you’re overbetting, but does it make up for it in terms of the chips you don’t lose in showdowns? I’m inclined to think so.


you are not getting value at all


You will get whatever value you have managed to extract preflop and on any streets that came before. In tournaments, it can be better to win a modest pot with no risk rather than try to squeeze out a little extra and end up losing a big pot or being forced to fold on the river.


No, you will get whatever chips your opposition has put in the pot…the object in poker is to get the value of your hand and overbetting (topic of conversation) defeats getting value


So I have decided to collect some data in order to test the accuracy of the pRNG. This has nothing to do with “fairness” because fairness means that everyone has the same chances and one person or group isn’t given special treatment.

Anyway, I wanted to pick something easy to track, so I am looking at how many times I flop a set when starting with a pocket pair. Obviously, if I don’t see the flop, that pocket pair is not counted. I am also only using my own cards, not those of other people.

First, we have to know how often we should flop a set. This can be calculated by figuring out how often we WON’T flop a set, then subtracting this from 100%.

So we have seen 2 cards, leaving 50 unseen. Of these, 48 will not make a set. We can do this with each card and get…

100% - ((48/50 X 47/49 X 46/48) X 100) = 11.75%

So far, I have only collected 36 instances, and 5 of these flopped sets. This is 13.9%, which seems to be well within the margin of error for such a small sample size. I will keep collecting data until I get at least 1,000 instances, which could take awhile. :slight_smile:


Set Flopping Update:

I’m still collecting data on flopping a set. So far, I have seen 136 flops when I was dealt a pocket pair, and 16 of these flopped or would have flopped a set.

That’s: (16/136) X 100 = 11.76%

Since we were expecting 11.75%, that’s pretty close. I’ll keep collecting numbers until I get 1,000 instances and see what happens.